By Dr. Field Ruwe The voice of the ECZ election officer resonated ominously like a death knell: “Thank you, chairperson. The next results are from Southern Province.” For supporters of Brian Mundubile the mere mention of Southern Province brought about untold anguish because it represented the moment of demographically and mathematically inevitable defeat. The election […]
By Dr. Field Ruwe
The voice of the ECZ election officer resonated ominously like a death knell:
“Thank you, chairperson. The next results are from Southern Province.”
For supporters of Brian Mundubile the mere mention of Southern Province brought about untold anguish because it represented the moment of demographically and mathematically inevitable defeat. The election officer proceeded to announce the results.
Monze District, Bweengwa Constituency: “Daniel Pule PDP=0, Richard Siamunene CDP=0, Howard Kunda ZWP=0, Richard Silumbe LM=3, Brian Mushimba OPP=1, Given Chansa MEE=8, Given Katuta Independent=4, Fred Mmembe SP=5, Kelvin Bwalya ZMP=23, Harry Kalaba CF=11, Brian Mundubile NRPUP=129, Hakainde Hichilema UPND=24,492.”
“Next,” the announcer continued. “Solwezi North: “Daniel Pule PDP=0, Richard Siamunene CDP=0, Howard Kunda ZWP=0.” Richard Silumbe LM=0.” There was laughter from the audience.
Announcer continued. “Brian Mushimba OPP=0,” Laugher. “Given Chansa MEE=0” Laughter. “Given Katuta Independent=0.” More laughter. “Fred Mmembe SP=0.” Even more laughter. “Kelvin Bwalya ZMP=0, Harry Kalaba CF=2, Brian Mundubile NRPUP=2,331, Hakainde Hichilema UPND=39,662.”
Every Zambian should tip his or her hat to the Tonga and the Bantu Botatwe for showing other ethnic groups the meaning of ethnic solidarity. Through robust intragroup ethnic capital, they have demographically and successfully executed their voting strategy with collective action like no other. Never in the history of Zambia have a people grounded themselves in a shared identity, collective action, and political cooperation to rescue one of their own sons as has been demonstrated in this year’s election.
Southern Province served as the critical counterweight in the election, with the Bantu Botatwe regions decisively wiping out or eroding the margins Mundubile was securing in his strongholds. This formidable turnout highlighted the impact of a unified electorate voting in lockstep, motivated by the acute understanding that the fate of their political leader was inextricably bound to their own fate.
What we have witnessed from the Bantu Botatwe and its affiliates is a masterclass in ethnic demographic solidarity, political unity, and collective resolve.
On August 13, 2026, more than 50 % of 2.6 million Tongas; 440,000 Lambas; 310,000 Lenjes; 215,000 Ilas; 75,000 Solis; 69,000 Totelas; 58,000 Salas; and 17,000 Fwes (Mafwe) stood shoulder-to-shoulder in endless queues outside polling stations in absolute trust and mutual reciprocity. At the end of the day, they executed a historicized subnational cohesion and a natural political strategic alignment unprecedented in Zambian politics.
This is what I meant when I penned “2026 Hunt for Successor Five.” Securing victory in an election through demographic means entails effectively forming a voting coalition that spans crucial population segments, including ethnicity and geography, which surpasses or strategically outmaneuvers the opponents’ support base within the established electoral framework.
By voting monolithically, the Tongas and Bantu Botatwe affiliates have proved that “demography is destiny,” and has nothing to do with tribalism. They have understood that winning an election relies on eroding an opponent’s traditional margins. If they are not challenged in future elections, they will do it again, and again, and again, and gladly so.
Well done, Southern Province and all your affiliates.
