Partner parties in the opposition are poaching each other’s elected leaders.
Kenya’s opposition is facing an unusual form of political cannibalism, with partner parties poaching each other’s elected leaders and smaller outfits struggling to retain their political bases.
The defections are exposing what could become the soft underbelly of some opposition principals that they may command a seat at the coalition table but have little political muscle on the ground.
In the boardrooms, the principals have presented themselves as equal partners in the United Opposition.
On the ground, however, their elected leaders are drifting towards rival parties and emerging political movements raising questions about who actually controls the grassroots networks needed to win elections.
For individual politicians, the shifts may be driven by political survival and self-preservation.
The poaching has already created friction within the United Opposition, with some parties accusing their bigger partners of bullying and scavenging on their political bases.
The Democratic Citizens Party (DCP) associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has in turn accused some of its partners of failing to pull their weight in grassroots mobilisation.
“Our party leader has told them that they need to go to the people and stop spending a lot of time in hotels and boardrooms,” said Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, alias Mejja Donk.
“If you look at Jubilee MPs, I don’t think there is a single member seeking to defend their seats on the party. Some of those leaders cannot even convince their own members of parliament. We have a very big problem with some of the so called principals,” said the MP, a close ally of Mr Gachagua.
Jubilee Party which is fronting former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i for the presidency has suffered one of the most visible waves of defections.
A number of its elected leaders have either moved to DCP, aligned themselves with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), or gravitated towards the Linda Mwananchi movement associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna
In Nairobi, all three Jubilee MPs have indicated that they will defend their seats on DCP. They are Kamukunji MP Yusuf Hassan, Embakasi Central MP Mark Mwenje and Starehe MP Amos Mwago.
Mr Hassan is the latest to publicly ditch the former ruling party.
In the Mt Kenya region, former Kieni MP Kanini Kega who was sponsored by Jubilee to the East African Legislative Assembly has also moved to DCP.
Others have aligned themselves with UDA including nominated MP Sabina Chege, Aldas MP Aden Keynan, Nakuru West MP Samuel Arama, Sirisia MP John Waluke, Kitui South MP Racheal Nyamai and Garissa Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji.
The DCP inroads into Jubilee’s traditional bases could weaken former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s bargaining position in the 2027 political matrix while strengthening Mr Gachagua’s hand.
It could also complicate Dr Matiang’i’s quest to emerge as the opposition’s presidential flag bearer.
Some Gusii leaders who had initially identified with Dr Matiang’i have also been gravitating towards Linda Mwananchi which has gained momentum in recent months.
Among them are Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi and Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo.
Pauline Njoroge who served as Jubilee’s deputy organising secretary has also resigned from the party to join Mr Sifuna’s movement.
Mr Kega has been particularly blunt about Jubilee’s prospects, declaring the party dead.
He blamed the party leadership for failing to recognise the role of elected leaders and argued that Mr Kenyatta should have stepped aside as party leader.
“There is no future for Jubilee in Mt Kenya and Nairobi. Uhuru should have resigned as the party leader because his presence is not allowing other officials to exploit their potential,” the EALA MP said in an interview.
But Jubilee Co-deputy Party leader Jeremiah Kioni accused DCP of deliberately targeting the party instead of focusing on the broader objective of defeating President Ruto.
“It is shocking that some parties within the opposition are busy scavenging from each other. DCP’s main purpose is to embarrass Jubilee. They are happy fighting Jubilee more than they do UDA in Mt Kenya,” Mr Kioni said.
He accused Mr Gachagua of being more interested in increasing DCP’s parliamentary numbers in Mt Kenya than in the opposition’s wider campaign to deny Dr Ruto a second term.
Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka recently appointed several individuals who had been closely associated with Mr Gachagua to senior positions in his party.
Former Cabinet minister Jamleck Irungu Kamau was appointed party chairman while Nyali MP Mohamed Ali was named Deputy Party Leader designate.
Lawyer Ndegwa Njiru became the party’s first spokesperson.
The appointments were seen as an attempt by Mr Musyoka to strengthen his own political machinery by drawing from Mr Gachagua’s camp.
Mr Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K has also been exposed to defections with some of its elected leaders aligning themselves with UDA or Linda Mwananchi.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Bumula MP Jack Kwamboka have identified with Mr Sifuna’s movement while Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula and Kiminini MP Kaikai Bisau have moved towards UDA.
DAP-K Secretary-General Eseli Simiyu, however, played down the defections to Linda Mwananchi arguing that the movement is deliberately bringing together politicians from different parties.
“Linda Mwananchi has people from various parties. Even as DAP-K we are supporting Sifuna. So there is no contradiction,” Mr Simiyu said.
He attributed defections to the broad based government to the increasingly transactional nature of Kenyan politics.
“Broad based has made politics so transactional. Some have left because of money,” he said.
Mr Savula, however, offered a far more damning assessment of his former party saying DAP-K had become a shell heading into the 2027 elections.
He predicted that most of its elected leaders would eventually seek tickets from other parties as they align themselves either with President Ruto or Mr Sifuna.
Karua’s problem is different.
While Jubilee and DAP-K grapple with defections, Martha Karua faces a different challenge her People's Liberation Party (PLP) has no elected MP or governor in its corner.
Allies of Mr Gachagua have questioned the influence of PLP, Peter Munya’s Party of National Unity (PNU), Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party, Lenny Kivuti’s Devolution Empowerment Party and Omingo Magara’s People’s Democratic Party in the opposition equation.
But PLP National Youth Leader Kinyua Njeri dismissed the suggestion that Ms Karua lacks a political base, describing her as a quiet mobiliser who has been busy popularising the party across the country.
“What is the most important is the outcome of the 2027 elections. The main goal now is to take Ruto home, not for a few opposition parties to secure more parliamentary seats. My party leader is always out popularising the outfit. The idea that we don’t have people can only be tested at the ballot,” Mr Kinyua said.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu said the movements were a reflection of local political realities.
“Politics is local and some of the political parties have lost popularity and have very little attention to the voter. The new kids on the block, namely DCP and Linda Mwananchi movement, are the go-to parties and everybody wants to be associated with them,” he said.
US based political analyst Prof David Monda described some opposition leaders as “kings without a kingdom”, arguing that they were clinging to parties that had become political shells.
He cited Mr Wamalwa as one of the casualties of Mr Sifuna’s emergence.
Prof Monda said the defections could further diminish the already limited bargaining power of some opposition principals as coalition negotiations gather pace.
“While they try to ride the bandwagon of ‘one-term’ opposition politics, the major opposition players view them with an air of contemptuous tolerance,” he said.
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