SA warned to brace for ‘unprecedented’ El Niño, record heat, drought and flood risks loom

South Africa is bracing for one of the most powerful El Niño events on record, with scientists warning of soaring temperatures, below‑normal rainfall, and mounting threats to agriculture, health, and disaster management.

The South African Weather Service (Saws) held a media conference on Friday, 18 September, to discuss the latest El Niño forecast and engage representatives from weather-sensitive sectors on preparedness plans for the 2026/27 El Niño events.

El Niño is strengthening

Earlier this month, the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.

NOAA places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.

For Africa, the threat will vary by region. Southern Africa is expected to face drought and extreme heat, while East Africa could experience excessive rainfall and flooding.

‘Unprecedented’

Professor Willem Landman of the University of Pretoria presented an overview of the current status of the El Niño, confirming that the country is already experiencing an El Niño event.

Landman described the event as “unprecedented in the instrumental record,” noting its unusually early and rapid intensification.

“Seasonal forecasts point to high probabilities of above‑normal temperatures across all regions and below‑normal rainfall by mid‑summer.

People’s reaction

According to Mr Rudzani Malala, Senior Manager of Disaster and Risk Reduction (DRR), the El Niño in itself is not a disaster, but the way in which people react and plan for it should be in a responsible and proactive manner.

“All signals indicate that we are in a very strong El Niño. Saws’ DRR department provides daily weather forecasts, as well as impact-based weather forecasts and warnings, which the public and relevant sectors should follow closely.

“The way people react and plan for it will determine whether it becomes a disaster,” said Malala.

National disaster

The National Disaster Management Centre’s Phumeza Tyali urged proactive planning.

“Preparedness must begin before impacts materialise. Whole‑of‑government and whole‑of‑society coordination is essential. The media are critical in turning information into action. Therefore, whole-of-government and whole-of society coordination is essential,” said Tyali.

Agriculture

Agricultural experts warned of reduced grazing and lower grain yields, urging conservative strategies.

“Conditions are more favourable than before the 2015/16 El Niño, but this may change by the end of summer,” said Dr Johan Malherbe of the Agricultural Research Council.

Health specialists highlighted disproportionate impacts on vulnerable groups.

Vulnerable groups

Celeste Madondo of the Foundation for Professional Development (FPA) presented on the vulnerabilities of certain groups, such as the poor, women and young children, the elderly and people living with chronic illnesses.

She emphasised that South Africa is experiencing more frequent, intense and prolonged heat events.

“Extreme heat events are intensifying, and climate‑health linkages are complex, hitting the poorest hardest.”

The Saws said it will continue issuing monthly forecasts and bi‑monthly briefings with the central message: El Niño is here, it is strong, and South Africa must act now.