Forget El Niño, South Africa’s harvest faces a new threat beyond drought

As South Africa heads into what could be one of its driest and hottest springs in more than a decade, farmers are increasingly relying on connected technologies to protect crops and conserve water.

But as irrigation systems, soil sensors, and supply chains become more automated, cybersecurity risks are growing alongside them.

Cybercriminals

Forecasters at the South African Weather Service (Saws) expect below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country between October and December as a strong El Niño event builds towards its peak.

Last month, the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.

“On many commercial farms, a pivot irrigator now adjusts itself by the minute, and a soil sensor decides when a field gets watered,” says Doros Hadjizenonos, Regional Director for Southern Africa at Fortinet. “Cybercriminals were not part of the design brief for much of it.”

Attacks

The warning comes as agriculture becomes increasingly digitised from farm to port. Systems that enable real-time sharing of shipment and cargo data are improving efficiency across the supply chain, while also increasing the number of connected systems that require protection.

According to the Food and Ag-ISAC 2026 State of the Threat report, ransomware attacks on the global food and agriculture sector continue to rise.

“The attackers want a target that can’t afford to stop,” says Hadjizenonos. “There’s a growing trend of attacks aimed at operational technology environments where physical infrastructure and processes become part of the attack surface.”

Agricultural exports

The stakes extend beyond individual farms. Agricultural exports reached R268.7 billion in 2025, up from R243.7 billion in 2024, while exports totalled about R65 billion in the second quarter of 2026, around 10% higher than the same period a year earlier.

At the same time, farmers are being asked to produce more with fewer resources. Wheat plantings were estimated at 486,400 hectares in April, the smallest area in 12 years, according to the Crop Estimates Committee.

“Every connected device can potentially expand the attack surface,” says Hadjizenonos. “Once agricultural systems exchange data with a port authority, logistics providers or an export certification body, cybersecurity becomes part of a broader supply-chain resilience challenge.”

Dry conditions

With harvest season under way and dry conditions forecast to persist, the technology helping South Africa’s farmers navigate climate pressures is becoming an increasingly important part of the country’s agricultural infrastructure.