Are Zimbabweans in danger of mass starvation over government Super El Niño unpreparedness?

Source: Are Zimbabweans in danger of mass starvation over government Super El Niño unpreparedness?

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

As global meteorologists issue unambiguous warnings of a severe Super El Niño threatening the 2026/27 agricultural season, a chilling sense of déjà vu hangs over Zimbabwe.
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Climate projections point to an overwhelming probability of prolonged, meteorological drought across Southern Africa.
Yet, despite these clear early warning signals, those in authority appear to have buried their heads in the sand like the proverbial ostrich.
We are lulled into a false sense of security while walking blindly into an impending humanitarian disaster.
What makes the coming crisis so terrifyingly unique is that the traditional safety nets no longer exist.
In previous emergencies, Zimbabweans could count on international humanitarian intervention to plug domestic deficits.
That buffer has evaporated.
Facing a historic global financial crunch, the World Food Programme has seen its funding collapse by nearly 40 percent from peak levels.
The agency is operating under strict emergency triage, reducing rations and dropping millions from its rolls worldwide.
If a devastating drought strikes, declaring a state of national disaster will not magically bring food aid to our borders.
The aid pipeline is dry, leaving millions of vulnerable citizens at direct risk of famine.
Even without a Super El Niño, the nation’s food security is already fraying at the seams.
In Matabeleland, major industrial millers like Blue Ribbon Industries alongside dozens of smaller operations have been forced to suspend operations.
They simply cannot find local maize to process.
Predictably, the government has rushed to deny any crisis, insisting that the national silos are overflowing with strategic reserves.
But these claims of “bumper harvests” crumble under scrutinizing reality.
Prominent economists like Eddie Cross have publicly questioned these authorities’ glowing statistics.
He has even openly wondered why officialdom insists on fabricating agricultural success stories while we inevitably end up begging for international assistance.
Rather than acting like the biblical Joseph—using current months to actively stockpile grain for the lean year ahead—the government’s policy framework seems explicitly designed to self-sabotage.
Under Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025, authorities imposed restrictive levies and tight import regulations meant to force processors into local sourcing.
This policy makes zero sense during an impending shortage.
Local millers, starved of domestic grain, are crippled by upfront import levies, making it impossible to secure grain on viable commercial terms.
Waiting until the drought lands to scramble for imports will prove catastrophic.
The Super El Niño will simultaneously hit key global producers like South Africa, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, prompting them to restrict exports to feed their own people.
Meanwhile, nations in South America that might escape the dry spell will command exorbitant prices due to the global deficit.
With nearly half of our population surviving in extreme poverty, expensive imported grain will sit far beyond the financial reach of ordinary families.
The official defense rests heavily on Pfumvudza, praised by ministers as a silver bullet against climate shocks.
This relies on dangerous wishful thinking.
While Pfumvudza is a commendable climate-smart technique for normal rainfall variability, it remains a dryland farming method.
When a Super El Niño delivers total meteorological drought—weeks without a single drop of rain—no amount of meticulous digging or mulching can extract moisture from scorched earth.
We are dangerously close to repeating the horror of 1992, the year Zimbabwe effectively surrendered its title as the “breadbasket of Africa.”
Prior to 1992, complacent officials ignored early climate warnings, overstated grain reserves, and exported strategic surplus to earn foreign currency.
When the sky turned to brass, the country had barely two days of grain left in reserve.
Over a million head of cattle perished, factories shut down due to water shortages, and the late panic to import food bogged down in regional transport bottlenecks.
Today, officialdom is repeating the exact same playbook of denial, complacency, and administrative blunders.
While our national conversation remains consumed by economic anxiety, corruption, and political maneuvers, a far more fundamental threat is marching toward us.
We must wake up, speak out, and demand transparent, accountable answers regarding our national grain reserves before the fields wither.
Failure to demand accountability now ensures that millions will face the terrible consequences of engineered starvation tomorrow.
***Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to contact him on +263715667700 or ***mbofana.tendairuben73@gmail.com

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