$1 Trillion Economy: FG Targets 10.34% Growth By 2030

• Private sector expected to finance 72% of investment, govt admits infrastructure, productivity challenges

• Minister insists economic transformation must translate into jobs, higher incomes, improved living standards

Festus Akanbi

The federal government has set a target of 10.34 per cent annual economic growth by 2030 under the proposed National Development Plan 2026–2030, as it works towards building a $1 trillion economy, with the private sector expected to finance about 72 per cent of cumulative investment.

The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed this yesterday, saying the proposed plan envisages average annual growth of 7.79 per cent, rising from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent by 2030.

She said the plan also projects gross capital formation to rise to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, while acknowledging that achieving the targets would require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, productivity, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.

Uzoka-Anite, whose keynote address was delivered by the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Adeyemi Adeniran, spoke at the sixth DataPro International Credit Rating Webinar, themed, “Credit Rating as a Catalyst for Economic Transformation.”

The minister said the proposed National Development Plan 2026–2030 was designed to move the economy beyond macroeconomic stabilisation towards sustained productivity and investment-led growth.

She, however, disclosed that Nigeria recorded average real GDP growth of 3.11 per cent under the National Development Plan 2021–2025, against the 4.65 per cent target.

She said: “Nigeria’s experience under the recently concluded National Development Plan 2021–2025 reflected both economic resilience and persistent structural challenges.”

The minister continued: “Real GDP growth averaged approximately 3.11 per cent during the plan period, compared with the target of 4.65 per cent.”

According to her, “This performance highlighted constraints relating to fiscal space, infrastructure deficiencies, low productivity and vulnerability to external shocks.”

The admission provides important context for the administration’s latest development ambitions, particularly as manufacturers continue to contend with unreliable electricity supply, high financing costs, logistics difficulties and weak consumer demand.

Outlining the government’s proposed development strategy, Uzoka-Anite said the National Development Plan 2026–2030 was designed to move Nigeria beyond macroeconomic stabilisation toward sustained productivity and investment-led expansion.

She added: “Its preferred development scenario envisages nominal economic output approaching $1 trillion by 2030.”

However, the minister cautioned against measuring economic transformation solely by the size of national output.

“Achieving this ambition will require more than GDP expansion. It will demand increased productive capacity, greater investment, employment generation and improved welfare for Nigerians,” she stated.

The minister said gross capital formation was projected to rise to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector expected to account for about 72 per cent of cumulative investment.

“These ambitious targets will require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability,” she said.

“The government cannot finance Nigeria’s development requirements alone.”

She added: “Its responsibility is to create an enabling environment for private investment, strengthen domestic value chains and support productivity-enhancing sectors.”

The proposed financing arrangement places considerable responsibility on domestic and foreign investors, whose willingness to commit long-term capital will depend on economic stability, predictable regulations, reliable infrastructure and prospects for profitable production.

The concerns were reinforced by figures from the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), which disclosed that commercial bank credit to manufacturers declined by N1.92 trillion, from N8.53 trillion in December 2024 to N6.61 trillion in December 2025.

MAN’s Director-General, Mr. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, had warned in June that the contraction was undermining industrial investment and capacity utilisation.

Uzoka-Anite acknowledged that stronger economic indicators would be insufficient unless they translated into tangible improvements in citizens’ welfare.

“Although these reforms have involved difficult adjustments for households and businesses, their ultimate success will be measured by their capacity to promote economic stability, reduce production costs, create jobs and improve living standards,” she declared.

Her position reflects concerns expressed by the World Bank in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which acknowledged improvements in macroeconomic stability but warned that household incomes had not fully recovered and poverty remained high.

The minister identified agriculture, manufacturing, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors capable of driving the proposed economic transformation.

“A strong sovereign credit profile cannot be built on a narrow economic base,” she said.

“Nigeria must diversify its economy, exports, employment opportunities and sources of foreign exchange.”

She maintained that the government must improve infrastructure, expand productive capacity and strengthen institutions to attract investment.

“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile will depend on the competitiveness and productivity of the real economy,” she emphasised.

Uzoka-Anite also linked the growth ambition to fiscal reforms, saying the government plans to raise revenue from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.

She said capital expenditure was projected to increase from 36.03 per cent of total government spending in 2025 to 57.43 per cent by 2030.

However, she cautioned that these targets would require transparent procurement, efficient project execution and stronger public financial management.

“Investment-grade status should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity, stronger external buffers and credible institutions, rather than an end in itself,” the minister stated.

She further declared: “The fundamental question is whether Nigeria’s institutions and economy can sustain investor confidence while delivering inclusive prosperity.”