Iran is turning deterrence into a weapon of escalation

On 31 October, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, instructed the armed forces to answer any future threat with an immediate and effective response, “without geographical restrictions”. He also ordered commanders to update the list of American and Israeli material and non-material assets within Iran’s reach, while strengthening intelligence, doctrine and domestic defence capabilities. The significance lies less in the threat itself than in the strategic logic behind it. Tehran is not claiming that it can match the United States aircraft for aircraft, ship for ship or dollar for dollar. It is signalling something more consequential: American military superiority may not translate into a controllable conflict or a decisive political outcome. Iran wants the costs of renewed attacks to extend beyond […]