October 2026 fuel prices climbing … with no FIX soon

South African motorists are bracing for dire October 2026 fuel prices. Current forecasts from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to petrol climbing by R2.14, with diesel up R2.04 per litre. This price pain is being driven by renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran that have pushed Brent crude close to $110 a barrel. Circumstances that no South African can influence … Or can we?

OCTOBER 2026 FUEL PRICES

It’s tempting to blame Brent crude alone for these diabolical October 2026 fuel prices. But a deeper problem has been building for years. The price of refined fuel products, the stuff South Africa actually imports, has risen more than 100% since conflicts started. Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG explains: “South Africa doesn’t have enough refining capacity to turn crude into cheaper petrol. Therefore, we’re stuck paying whatever the international refined-products market demands.”

Because South Africa has no meaningful crude oil reserves of its own, October 2026 fuel prices are beholden to any number of outside forces. This coincides with a collapse in domestic refining capacity: Since 2020, the country has lost half its refining facilities and the ability to produce roughly 260 000 barrels a day.

TWO CRUDE REFINERIES LEFT

Government’s ambitious plan is to revive refining capacity to between

400 000

and

650 000

barrels per day. Image: File

Blackmore explains that there are just two operational crude refineries left. Sasol Natref and Astron Energy in Cape Town. Combined, they represent a daily capacity of around 208 000 barrels. Sasol’s coal-to-liquids plant at Secunda adds roughly 150 000 barrels a day of synthetic fuel on top of that. It’s meaningful volume, but nowhere near what the country used to produce, and what it needs to fill the gap by imports.

The biggest piece of lost capacity was Sapref, once the country’s largest refinery at 180 000 barrels a day. Owners Shell and BP paused operations in 2022, weighing its future after KwaZulu-Natal floods damaged the plant beyond a quick fix. As such, the CEF picked up Sapref’s assets in 2024, reportedly for just R1.

BRINGING SAPREF BACK TO LIFE

Interestingly, the CEF outlined last week how it intends to bring the Sapref site back to life with a three-phase approach:

• Use Sapref’s existing storage and transfer infrastructure to support fuel imports and generate early revenue.

• Rebuild refining capacity to

  400 000

  barrels a day.

• With further investment and regulatory approval, push that figure to

  650 000

  barrels a day.

“South Africa cannot afford to lose sight of the strategic importance of domestic refining capacity. If the full plan lands, it would more than double, and potentially triple, the country’s total refining capacity,” said CEF CEO Tshepo Mokoka.

Sadly, for now, none of this changes what’s already in play for October 2026 fuel prices. So, best you refuel again before another month-end rush to the pumps …

But what do you think? Can you believe the state of October 2026 fuel prices? What are you doing to limit your travel costs? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below …