Is Zimbabwe really back to November 2017?

Tendai Ruben Mbofana

He was addressing the 23rd ZANU-PF National People’s Conference in Chinhoyi.

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His statement has attracted both domestic and international attention – even more than President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s opening speech.

Over the past few hours, I have received inquiries from across the globe on what the vice president actually said and the possible implications for Zimbabwe.

In his address, the vice president said: “Chii chakaita kuti Second Republic ivepo? Kwaive kugadzirisa zvakaipa zvanga zvichiitika kumashure. Hatisi kudzokorora here kuita zvatakambotadza? Ndomubvunzo watinofanira kuzvivunza.”

[What led to the emergence of the Second Republic? It emerged from correcting the rot that was prevailing. Are we not repeating the same mistakes? That is the question we should be asking ourselves.]

These remarks immediately reminded many of a similar speech Chiwenga made in November 2017, while he was Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

At that time, he cautioned the President Robert Mugabe regime against its purges of war veterans and figures with liberation war credentials.

He stated that the ongoing political purges targeting historic members of ZANU-PF—which followed the recent firing of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa—had to halt “forthwith”.

A few weeks later, the militarily intervened forcing Mugabe to step down with the threat of impeachment.

This opened the way for the return of Mnangagwa, who had been sacked by Mugabe two weeks earlier, who assumed power as the new president.

Thus, the so-called Second Republic was born.

Yet yesterday, Chiwenga appeared to paint a disturbing picture: the Second Republic was essentially repeating the mistakes that led to Mugabe’s ouster.

Is this true?

In this discourse I will attempt as best as I can to analyze if there are any parallels between what the Mnangagwa administration is doing and what we witnessed under Mugabe.

The most glaring parallel lies in the justification the military used during Operation Restore Legacy.

The urgent necessity of removing “criminals around the president” who were plundering state assets.

Today, systemic corruption and the looting of national resources have reached dizzying heights.

This decay is driven by a new class of state-entangled oligarchs and tender-preneurs who openly flaunt luxury while ordinary citizens sink deeper into economic distress.

The late Wicknell Chivayo became the poster child of this tender-driven opulence.

Having secured multi-million-dollar state contracts, he routinely displayed private jets, luxury mansions, and high-end vehicle fleets.

At the same time, he handed out millions in cash and luxury cars to public figures to construct political loyalty for the presidency.

Beyond local procurement, investigative reporting and investigative media outlets have linked his network’s activities directly to shadow economies involving gold, drugs, and arms smuggling.

Similarly, figures like his brother, Joachim Chivayo, remain close to the highest corridors of power despite being wanted in South Africa after absconding trial over a R15 million gold smuggling charge.

This blatant proximity underscores how political patronage shields elite actors from judicial accountability.

Special Presidential Investment Adviser Paul Tungwarara further exemplifies this dynamic.

Tasked with massive state-funded initiatives like the Presidential Borehole Scheme, his operations have drawn severe parliamentary scrutiny over inflated per-unit billing, opaque allocations, and underperformance.

Coupled with billionaire tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei—who built a corporate empire through uniquely favorable state deals that earned him US and UK sanctions—the state has seen the total institutionalization of state capture.

This brings us to the second parallel: the rise of an untraditional successor bypassing the military establishment.

Just as Grace Mugabe’s rapid ascent alongside the Generation 40 (G40) faction threatened liberation veterans in 2017, Tagwirei’s meteoric political ascension has shocked party traditionalists.

Tagwirei rapidly accumulated immense political power by entering the ZANU-PF Central Committee, securing a senatorial seat, and taking over the Cabinet portfolio of Minister of Economic Development and Investment Promotion.

He went on to step directly into the ZANU-PF Politburo as Secretary for Economic Affairs.

Consequently, he is widely viewed as Mnangagwa’s preferred successor, anchoring his bid entirely in economic patronage rather than political or military pedigree.

Naturally, this has triggered a direct collision with Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, the securocrats, war veterans, and core party loyalists.

In 2017, Mugabe’s moves provoked an existential backlash from the military.

Today, Tagwirei’s rapid accumulation of power has sparked an aggressive turf war, with Chiwenga’s faction pushing back—including presenting dossiers to the Politburo alleging billions looted by politically connected business allies.

Finally, we see identical attempts to engineer power retention and the resulting fracture of party loyalty.

The Mnangagwa administration has pushed aggressive constitutional shifts to extend presidential terms and insulate its inner circle, mirroring Mugabe’s late-stage efforts to clear a lane for his preferred successor.

In response, open internal dissent and factional warfare have resurfaced across ZANU-PF structures.

By echoing the very warnings that preceded the fall of Robert Mugabe, Vice President Chiwenga did not merely deliver a speech in Chinhoyi.

He forced the nation to confront its own unheeded history.

The parallels are no longer subtle warnings—they are a mirror reflecting the exact corruption, state capture, and betrayal of loyal veterans that birthed the Second Republic.

If the administration continues down this familiar path, the answer to the vice president’s question becomes undeniable.

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Zimbabwe has walked in a full circle right back to November 2017.

• *Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to contact him on +263715667700 or *

  [email protected]