Tax revenue must match Zimbabwe’s 2030 dream: Chinamasa

STAFF WRITER Zimbabwe’s tax revenue must grow in tandem with the country’s ambition to attain upper-middle-income status by 2030, with the tax-to-GDP ratio projected to rise to 21,9 percent by then, ZIMRA Commissioner-General Regina Chinamasa has said.

The revenue authority says stronger domestic resource mobilisation will be critical to financing infrastructure, social services and other development priorities under the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2), which targets a tax revenue-to-GDP ratio of 22 percent by 2030.

Zimbabwe’s tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is currently estimated at about 14,5 percent, but is projected to rise to 17,3 percent this year, 18,9 percent in 2027, 19,9 percent in 2028, 20,9 percent in 2029 and 21,9 percent by 2030.

Speaking at the Zimbabwe Economic Development Conference (ZEDCON) 2026 last week, Chinamasa said the country’s revenue mobilisation drive had to keep pace with its development aspirations.

“The size of our tax revenue must match the size of our 2030 dream of an upper-middle-income Zimbabwe,” she said.

For 2026, the projected actual tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is estimated at between 17,5 and 18,2 percent, putting Zimbabwe between 0,2 and 0,9 percentage points ahead of its annual target.

However, Chinamasa said the projected performance remained between 0,7 and 1,4 percentage points below the OECD upper-middle-income benchmark of 18,9 percent.

She said Zimbabwe could reach parity with the benchmark in 2027 as measures to broaden the tax base, improve compliance and strengthen revenue administration gain momentum.

The gap between Zimbabwe’s tax revenue-to-GDP ratio and the NDS2 target of 22 percent is expected to narrow from 4,7 percentage points to just 0,1 percentage points by 2030, representing 99,5 percent attainment of the national aspiration.

Higher and sustainable tax revenues will be essential to funding infrastructure development, expanding social services and supporting economic transformation, ZIMRA said.

The authority’s 2026-2030 strategy places revenue mobilisation and tax-base expansion at the centre of its mandate, alongside ease of doing business and trade facilitation, digital transformation and innovation, and human capital development.

The approach is aligned with NDS2, Zimbabwe’s economic blueprint for 2026-2030, which places greater emphasis on domestic resource mobilisation to strengthen fiscal sustainability and finance national development.

Under the strategy, Government seeks to increase the broader revenue-to-GDP ratio from about 16 percent in 2025 to above 22 percent by 2030.

Key measures include tax reforms, broadening the tax base, improving compliance among formal and informal businesses and increasing the use of technology in tax administration.

The growing focus on domestic revenue comes as Zimbabwe seeks to reduce dependence on external development financing while strengthening its capacity to fund economic and social programmes from locally generated resources.