Soaring commodity prices influenced our 2026 revised growth forecast of 5.7 % for Ghana – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says rising global commodity prices, particularly gold, were a major factor behind its decision to raise Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026.

The Director of the IMF’s African Department, Zeine Zeidane, said higher commodity prices could boost export earnings, improve the trade balance and support economic expansion.

He was responding to a question from Joy Business during the release of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook.

Mr Zeidane explained that Ghana’s growth performance in the first half of the year also informed the revised forecast, with the Fund expecting that momentum to continue in the coming months.

“We believe that this momentum will be sustained going forward for Ghana,” he said.

He also commended Ghana’s fiscal performance despite recent shocks from energy prices.

Background

The IMF on October 13, 2026, raised Ghana’s economic growth forecast for the year to 5.7% and projected year-end inflation of 4.8%, despite global economic pressures and uncertainty.

The growth forecast represents an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the 4.6% projected in April.

In the same report, the Fund lowered its year-end inflation forecast from 7.9% to 4.8%.

The revised inflation projection falls below the government’s and the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8%, plus or minus two percentage points, which ranges from 6% to 10%.

With September inflation at 5.2%, the IMF’s forecast points to a further easing of price pressures by the end of the year.

Bank of Ghana internal projections cited by Joy Business had anticipated an increase in inflation in September, while expecting the year-end rate to remain within the target band.

If the IMF’s forecast materialises, Ghana would record single-digit year-end inflation for a second consecutive year, following a similar outcome in 2025.