…as sharp rise in violence is recorded across other regions
By Emeka Anaeto, Business Editor

Reports by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an international non-profit organization tracking conflicts and violence across 200 countries, has indicated that armed conflict has declined significantly in the Niger Delta region, a development which may have aided increases in oil production.

As contained in the ACLED report, violent events declined by 20.9 per cent in the South-South geopolitical region between 2023 and 2025. The rate of fatalities arising from such violent events in the oil rich region declined by 8.3 per cent within the same period of time.

According to the report the trend continued in the first five months of this year.

At the back of this development, data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed Nigeria’s crude oil production topped its OPEC quota in May, reaching its pinnacle in 15 months and cementing its position as Africa’s leading oil producer.

The report said the country produced an average of 1.53 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) during the month.
With a condensate production of 170,446 bpd included, the commission put Nigeria’s average total hydrocarbon output at 1.7 million bpd.
NUPRC stated: “Nigeria’s oil production witnessed an upswing in May 2026, averaging 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil and 170,446 barrels of condensates per day, bringing the total combined production to 1,700, 800 barrels per day and consolidating Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer.”
The figure represents 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, according to the regulator. The latest performance marks a significant milestone for the country’s oil sector, with total production standing at its peak since last July, when the combined crude oil and condensate output reached 1.71 million bpd.
With the figure for condensates excluded, the 1.53 million bpd in May represents Nigeria’s strongest performance since January 2025, when output touched 1.538 million bpd. The May figure also represents a 15-month high for crude oil production, excluding condensates.

Views from stakeholders

Chairman of the House Committee on Host Communities, Dekor Dumnamene Robinson, had attributed the relative stability in the oil producing region to the role of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL’s) in providing pipeline surveillance operations in the Niger Delta.

Also other lawmakers under the Joint Committee of the House of Representatives on Host Communities and Public Petitions and other stakeholders commended Tantita for what they described as effective and patriotic service in safeguarding Nigeria’s critical oil infrastructure.
They specifically cited the recovery of crude oil production, reduction in pipeline vandalism and restoration of relative peace in oil-producing communities as major achievements recorded under the leadership of High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Government Ekpemupolo.
“Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, in partnership with NNPCL, has rendered demonstrably effective service in the protection of crude oil pipelines and the recovery of national crude oil production,” they stated.
The National Chairman of Host Communities of Nigeria Producing Oil and Gas (HOSTCOM), His Highness Benjamin Style Tamaranebi, had further commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the confidence he has reposed in Tantita as a critical part of the security apparatus for protecting oil assets in the Niger Delta.
He stated: “Let us be clear, destroying our oil assets is economic suicide. It’s a direct attack on the very lifeline of our communities. Our host communities have endured environmental degradation, economic hardship, and neglect for decades. The passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was a turning point, ensuring that our communities finally receive direct benefits from the resources extracted from our land.”
He stated further: “HOSTCOM believes that the unique understanding of the Niger Delta terrain by Tantita and its personnel is vital for effective onslaught against oil theft, and it’s imperative that our security agencies and other critical stakeholders in our region recognise the selfless contributions of Tantita and its main promoter, our own indefatigable Niger Delta crusader for better life for our people and champion of equitable and fair distribution of the nation’s resources, High Chief, Dr. Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, the Ibe-Ebidouwei of Ijaw Nation and support them”.
A Lagos-based social analyst, Jamiu Idris, said to appreciate the current stability in the Niger Delta region, one must recall the state of near-collapse that defined Nigeria’s oil industry just a few years ago.
He stated: “Before the implementation of the Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) framework in late 2022, the nation faced an existential threat. Oil production had cratered to a historic low of 1.015 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2022, a staggering decline that jeopardised the federal budget, weakened the naira, and pushed the economy toward the brink of insolvency’’.
For a region severally described as the goose that lays the golden eggs, Niger Delta remains central to the growth and prosperity of the national economy.
It has the potential to be a hub of economic growth and development, which can only be achieved by sustaining the prevailing peace and stability in the region.
Besides, achieving the revenue and economic growth targets of the Federal Government depends largely on the peace and stability of the Niger Delta.
Tantita Security Services, in collaboration with other security outfits are central in safeguarding Nigeria’s oil assets and ensuring a lasting peace in the Niger Delta region.
The TSSNL operations have transformed the oil and gas landscape and allowed Nigeria to expand oil production quota and significantly cut rampant oil theft.
The impact of TSSNL’s operations was captured in a recent survey, with majority of the respondents attributing the de-escalation of security incidents in the Niger-Delta region to the pipeline surveillance operations executed by TSSNL.

Violence rises across other regions

ACLED’s Nigerian report indicates that the dip in violence in Nigeria is only in South-south and South East, incidences escalated in the other parts of the country during the period under review, mixed development in the South West.
Although the rate of similar conflicts declined by a higher margin of 26.9 per cent in the South-East region, the rate of fatalities resulting from such events increased within the region by 8.3 per cent.
The violent events tracked by ACLED within the period under review include violence against civilians, battles between the authorities and armed groups, protests, strategic developments, riots, and explosions/remote violence.
The South-West recorded a decline of 14.1 per cent in the total number of incidents between 2023 and 2025. However, the fatality rate increased by 12.21 per cent. The picture takes a different look in the three geopolitical regions of Northern Nigeria.
Further analysis of the database showed that North-West incidents increased by 127.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025 and in the process, recorded an increase of 99.1 per cent in fatality rate.

North-East remains volatile

For the North-East, there was a rise of 19.5 per cent in the number of events and an increase in fatality rate of 26. 4 per cent within the period under review.
According to the report, the number of incidents in the North-Central region increased by 74.1 per cent while the number of fatality rate increased by 38.3 per cent between 2023 and 2025.
ACLED tracked a total of 4,701 incidents in all the regions in 2023. The number increased to 5,815 in 2024 and 6,570 in 2025. These give a total of 17,086 incidents within a period of three years.
Regional distribution of conflicts showed that the North-West recorded a total of 1,076 events in 2023; 1,727 in 2024, and 2,452 in 2025. These give a total of 5,255 incidents for the years under review.
The North-East recorded 923 events in 2023; 985 in 2024, and 1,103 in 2025. These give a total of 3,011 for the three-year period.
Similarly, the North-Central recorded 918 incidences in 2023; 1,140 in 2024 and 1,598 in 2025. These give a total of 3,656 for the three-year period.
For the South-South, a total of 651 conflicts occurred in 2023; 720 incidents in 2024, and 515 incidents in 2025. These sum up to a total of 1,886 for the period of review.
The South-West recorded a total of 573 incidents in 2023; 654 in 2024, and 492 incidents in 2025. These give a regional total of 1,719 events for the three-year period covered by this period.
On the other hand, the South-East recorded 560 events in 2023; 589 events in 2024, and 410 in 2025. These sum up to a total of 1,559 events for the years, 2023 to 2035.
In terms of fatalities, the national figure increased from 8,847 in 2023 to 9,862 in 2024. By 2025, it increased to 12,858. These give a total of 31,567 deaths for the period of three years.
Regional fatalities showed that the North-East recorded 3,469 deaths in 2023; 2,530 in 2024; and 4,486 in 2025. These come to a total of 10,485 in the three-year period.
The North-West recorded 2,351 deaths in 2023; 3,952 in 2024; and 4,680 in 2025. These sum up to a total of 10,983 within a period of three years.
The North-Central region recorded 1,921 fatalities in 2023; 2,038 in 2024; and 2,657 in 2025. These come to a total of 6,616 within the three years under review.
Turning down south, the South-East recorded 471 deaths in 2023; 598 in 2024; and 510 in 2025. These sum up to 1,579 in the three-year period.
In the South-South, regional fatalities rose from 399 in 2023 to 438, but declined significantly to 366 in 2025. These add up to 1,203 within a period of three years, 2023 to 2025.
The South-West recorded 231 deaths in 2023; 306 in 2024; and 259 in 2025. These come to a regional fatality of 796 within the three-year period under review.

2026 reports similar pattern

For the first five months of this year ending on May 23, 2026, the ACLED data showed a total of 3,477 incidents occurring in the regions in the following order: North-West, 1,318; North-East, 910; North-Central, 781; South-South, 158; South-West, 206; and South-East, 104.
In the first five months of the present year ending on May 23, 2026, the casualty figure stood at 7,061. The casualty figure is shared among the six geopolitical zones in the following order: North-East, 3,303; North-West, 2,153; North-Central, 1,335; South-East, 56; South-South, 124, and South-West, 90.
The ACLED statistics show that Nigeria’s security environment deteriorated significantly between 2023 and 2025, with both conflict events and fatalities rising sharply.
Within the period under review, the North-West became Nigeria’s primary conflict hotspot, recording the highest number of violent events.
The North-East remained the deadliest region, reflecting the continued impact of insurgency-related violence. The North-Central zone experienced sustained escalation, suggesting a widening geography of insecurity, according to experts.
The southern zones generally recorded lower levels of violence. The South-East, however, experienced elevated insecurity in 2023–2024 before the declining in 2025.

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