The rainfall season that should be starting in October is expected to be both drier and hotter than normal, the Namibia Meteorological Service says.
A drier than normal and hotter than normal rainy season is expected due to the rapid intensification of El Niño conditions over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the meteorological service said in a media statement on Friday.
El Niño conditions are expected when sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius above their normal levels.
The meteorological service has observed that sea surface temperatures in the area involved reached the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal levels during April to June this year, and increased to one degree above normal during the period from May to July, signifying a weak El Niño event.
Conditions have since then intensified rapidly, with sea surface temperatures 1.8ºC above normal levels observed by the second week of August.
“Major global climate prediction centres unanimously project that this El Niño event will continue to strengthen in the coming months, potentially exceeding 3ºC and reaching ‘very strong’ status,” the meteorological service says.
“Historical data and internal studies confirm that El Niño events consistently suppress rainfall across Namibia, while La Niña events enhance it,” the weather service adds.
It says regional climate models produced by the Namibia Meteorological Service for the period from October this year to March next year “indicate a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures combined with below-average rainfall across the country”.
The development of the current El Ninõ event “closely mirrors the 2023/24 season”, when large parts of Namibia experienced drought conditions, the service says.
It says an outlook of the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a 69% chance of the El Ninõ event during October to December, becoming the strongest El Niño on record since 1950.
The meteorological service further says a rainfall deficit of more than 100mm and reaching 150mm in some places is expected over the central interior of Namibia and in the Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshikoto, Kavango West and northern Otjozondjupa regions during the second part of the rainfall season, from January to March 2027.
“Moderate deficits” in rainfall are expected in the Omaheke region and the south throughout the Hardap and ||Kharas regions, the weather service says.
The whole country has a high likelihood of above-average maximum temperatures during the period from October to December, it says.
Maximum temperatures up to about 1ºC above average are expected over the eastern parts of the country during that period, while the extreme south-eastern parts of Namibia can anticipate temperatures of 2ºC above the normal.
During the period from January to March next year, maximum temperatures up to 3ºC above average are expected in the western Ohangwena, western Erongo, Omaheke and northern Hardap regions, the weather service warns.
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