Russian military commanders are “lying” to Vladimir Putin about progress in Ukraine, analysts have claimed. In a four-word warning, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Mr Putin’s belief over the battlefield situation is “divorced from the reality” on the ground amid strong Ukrainian defences.
It comes as reports suggest the Russian despot has ordered his forces to capture Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year. This is reported to be the 15th deadline set for Moscow troops to seize the region. Talks between Mr Putin and US envoys about ending the war concluded without any breakthroughs over the weekend.
A Kremlin statement released after the meeting suggested Mr Putin remains unwilling to make significant compromises in a peace deal.
Russian foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as “constructive” and “frank”, adding Moscow made clear it was making “significant advances” on the frontline.
However, ISW analysts rejected this notion and suggested Russian commanders are supplying the Kremlin with a false narrative.
The experts said: “The Russian military systematically misinforms Putin about the state of the front line in part due to the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian armed forces.
“The lies and distortions of Russian military commanders at many levels are likely leading Putin to harden his perception that Russian forces can achieve his intended objectives in Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and thus that he need not make any compromises in his aims.”
They added: “Putin’s battlefield fiction remains divorced from the reality of Ukraine’s defensive abilities, Russia’s own degraded offensive capabilities, and the difficult and expansive terrain Russian forces must still fight through to achieve [his]strategic goal in the region.”
The ISW analysts said as it stands, Russia will likely not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032.
Russian forces are only making small, creeping gains in eastern Ukraine while suffering extremely high casualties.
In May, British intelligence estimated almost half a million Russian soldiers have been killed in the war.
Ukraine and Russia agreed to pause strikes on each other’s capital while the talks took place.
Aerial attacks by both sides have escalated in recent months.
The US is aiming to restart efforts to end the war which has raged for more than four-and-a-half years.
The Trump administration’s push to end the fighting has lost momentum since the Iran war began in February.
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