‘Don’t bid for the Olympics’: Experts warn hosting could cost SA R500bn

Bidding to host the summer Olympic Games and Paralympic Games in either 2036 or 2040 could cost South Africa as much as R500 billion, much of it in taxpayer money… and experts believe it is not a smart idea.

Perhaps encouraged by the success of the Fifa World Cup, which South Africa successfully hosted in 2010, the South African Sports Confederation and Olympic Committee (Sascoc) is to reveal details today of its participation in a “continuous dialogue” process with the International Olympic Committee’s (IOC) as a preferred interested party to host the 2036 or 2040 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Recent host cities and countries have been unable to record a profit hosting the spectacle and some have taken years to pay off money borrowed for infrastructure development.

Olympic costs could leave SA with more debt

Finance experts say the cheapest way to host the Games would be to follow the minimalist example of Paris in 2024, which used much existing infrastructure.

But records show Olympic hosts inevitably exceed their budgets, with cost overruns sometimes doubling initial spending estimates.

If that happens here, the country will be saddled with even more debt, they say.

Although SA has existing stadiums built for the 2010 Fifa World Cup, which could significantly reduced new building costs, there will still be major amounts needed to renovate some of these.

The continuous dialogue process between Sascoc and the IOC apparently has the backing of the government, with Sport, Arts, and Culture Minister Gayton McKenzie and Cabinet approving the exploratory phase.

Can SA can afford the Games?

If successful, South Africa would make history as the first African nation to host the Olympic Games. Economist Dawie Roodt said a Fifa World Cup was not the Olympics.

Thinking back to the 2010 World Cup, which was hosted in South Africa, it was probably not worth the effort, he said.

“There are so many stadiums standing empty and we borrowed money for them. But, all in all, I think the country gained, even if it was not in financial terms.

“At the time, it boosted the economy and the nation’s morale, as we proved we could host such a major event.

“Even now, people still visit South Africa because they had such a great time here during the World Cup. So, the long-term impact has been more positive than negative,” Roodt said.

“The Olympics are much larger and cost significantly more. We have lost so much confidence due to our government’s failings, we wouldn’t see the same level of cooperation or hype that we had in 2010.

“My advice? Don’t bid for the Olympics – it wouldn’t be a smart move. Perhaps we could host a Rugby World Cup.”

Roodt said he doubted that South Africa would have managed to get its act together by 2036 or 2040.

“The past 15 years have been a disaster. What are the chances that the next 15 will be any better?”

Concerns over taxpayers’ money and stadiums

Political analyst Rene Oosthuizen questioned whether SA could justify spending billions on Olympic glory when so many South Africans are still struggling with access to basic services.

“Government must first prove taxpayers can afford it, that the country will genuinely benefit and that we will not be left with expensive, underused stadiums and a massive bill once the Games are over,” she said.

Political analyst Piet Croucamp said there was a good reason why SA couldn’t host the Rugby World Cup: SA doesn’t have the money to do that.

“The host nation of the Olympics should be able to put some money on the table and invest in infrastructure. We already have too many stadiums that stand vacant and neglected.

“Usually, the stadiums fall under the local government and I can’t think of any province, except Cape Town, that would be able to afford such a structure or stadium that they could maintain and that didn’t generate an income,” he added.

The hosting strategy and timeline

• The model:

  Sascoc president Barry Hendricks has championed a multicity hybrid model. Instead of relying on a single city, the proposal envisions spreading the events across Cape Town, Johannesburg, and Durban to make use of existing world-class infrastructure built for past global events like the 2010

  Fifa World Cup

  .

• The competition:

  The International Olympic Committee (IOC) confirmed South Africa as one of seven interested parties for the 2036 Games. It faces heavy competition from nations including Qatar, India, Germany, Hungary, Türkiye and South Korea.

• Next steps:

  Virtual presentations to the IOC’s Future Host Commission are scheduled for next month, with formal IOC feasibility assessments running through March next year. A final host city decision is expected to be voted on by the IOC in 2029.