Who Will Be Most Haunted by the U.S. Midterm Election Results?

Early voting is surging across the United States, offering a blunt signal of how intensely engaged Americans are as they weigh the country’s direction.

By last night, more than 48 million people had already voted, either in person at early voting sites or by mail.

Those totals are running well ahead of where the country stood at the same stage of the last midterm cycle. The biggest spikes are showing up in states with hard-fought Senate contests that could decide which party holds the chamber.

Texas is a prime example. The Republican-leaning Lone Star state has been a fixture in national and international headlines because of razor-tight races for the US Senate, the House and the governor’s office.

In the first seven days of early voting, more than 6.3 million Texans cast ballots.

Four years ago, that figure was 4.2 million at the same point.

Elsewhere, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas have each recorded increases of more than 30%, according to an AP analysis. South Carolina stands out even more sharply, with early voting up 83%.

With so many contests effectively tied, President Donald Trump is treating turnout as the central battleground of these midterms. The outcome could shape his influence in Washington and determine how much room he has to push his agenda over the next two years.

That urgency has driven an aggressive campaign schedule over the past month. Trump has appeared with high-profile figures including rapper Nicki Minaj and boxers Mike Tyson and Jake Paul as he works to fire up voters. At the beginning of October, the White House detailed plans for the president to travel to at least 17 states before Tuesday’s vote.

Nicki Minaj joined Donald Trump at a campaign rally

As of Tuesday afternoon, ABC News tracking showed Trump had made 20 stops in states he won comfortably and another six in battleground states since 9 September.

At one rally, his message was simple: “Just get out and vote”.

The question is whether the sprint changes the race as Republican candidates contend with voter unease over affordability and the administration’s immigration crackdown.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report on yesterday moved a dozen additional House races in Democrats’ direction.

It now estimates more than 218 seats as “lean Democrat” or better, and projects a Democratic House majority in the range of 227 to 240 seats — a result that could amount to a blue tsunami.

The fight for the Senate, however, remains far tighter. Seven pivotal races are still within the margin of error, leaving both parties with viable routes to a majority in 2027.

For Democrats, the math is straightforward but demanding: hold every seat they already have and pick up four more. Party strategists note they would be more comfortable with five, given that Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman’s vote is no longer viewed as reliably blue.

Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, wrote: “Given the dismal national political environment for Republicans – and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) – we see Democrats as the slight favourites.”

The New York Times, meanwhile, has described “a grim mood” taking hold around the White House, citing turnover, internal factional tension and anxiety about the consequences if Republicans lose legislative control in Washington.

If Democrats do seize Congress — or even just the House — the moment is unlikely to be defined only by political score-settling.

Democrats have said they will pursue investigations into allegations of corruption and wrongdoing within the Trump administration, but they have signalled that won’t be the centerpiece of their governing agenda.

The Democrats are hoping Abdul El-Sayed, pictured with Barack Obama, can win the Senate election in Michigan

Instead, much of the party’s energy would be aimed at addressing affordability, even if those plans ultimately collide with the threat of a presidential veto.

Democrats are discussing a shock-and-awe legislative drive early in the new year, beginning in the hours after they take control of the chamber, including proposals to restore health care subsidies and Medicaid funding and to introduce federal regulation of AI and data centres.

Even if Senate Republicans and the president block those measures, Democrats see upside either way.

If bills become law, Democrats get the credit.

If they are vetoed, the party can argue it tried — a contrast Democrats believe they can carry into the 2028 presidential campaign.

But if the closest races break against them, Democrats could be the ones left staring at a squandered opening.

After getting within reach, they could still stumble at the final hurdle, despite an overall political climate that appears favourable to them.

On the Republican side, one figure who could be left rattled is Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who has poured close to half a billion dollars into supporting the GOP in this election.

And if a blue wave — or a tsunami — does arrive, the White House mood described as grim could deteriorate further, pushing the Republican Party toward a defining crossroads.

As it turns its eyes to 2028 and the search for a presidential nominee, the party will face a stark choice: double down on Donald Trump’s political style, or treat this as the moment to chart another course.

The answer should begin to come into focus after next Tuesday.