US strikes three Iranian tankers as African airlines face renewed jet-fuel shock

• The US military struck three Iranian oil tankers after accusing Iran of firing missiles towards American warships.
• The confrontation has renewed fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Approximately 70% of Africa’s imported jet fuel and kerosene passes through the waterway.
• No major African airline has yet announced a surcharge specifically linked to the latest attacks.

The United States has struck three Iranian oil tankers in a fresh confrontation that could intensify pressure on African airlines already paying some of the world’s highest aviation-fuel costs.

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Reuters reported that American forces attacked the vessels on Saturday after the US military accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of launching ballistic missiles towards an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer.

    US officials said the warships evaded the missiles and no American personnel were injured. The *Associated Press* reported that two Iranian tankers were disabled and a third unladen vessel was destroyed.

Iran subsequently claimed that it had attacked American-linked vessels. That account has not been independently confirmed.

Although the confrontation occurred thousands of kilometres from Africa, the continent’s dependence on imported fuel gives it unusually high exposure to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 70% of the jet fuel and kerosene imported into Africa passes through Hormuz, according to S&P Global data previously reported by Reuters.

    **Why African airlines are particularly exposed**

Fuel generally accounts for between 30% and more than 40% of an African airline’s operating expenses, compared with a global average of about 20% to 25%, according to the African Airlines Association.

For South African low-cost carrier FlySafair, jet fuel represents between 50% and 55% of direct operating costs.

Those margins leave airlines with limited room to absorb another sharp price increase. Carriers can respond by increasing ticket prices, adding temporary fuel surcharges, reducing flights or operating smaller aircraft.

During an earlier disruption, FlySafair estimated that higher prices were adding approximately $2,070 (R35,000) to the cost of operating each Boeing 737-800 for one hour.

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The airline subsequently introduced fuel surcharges, while Airlink said it would adjust fares and consider reducing capacity if conditions required it.

The latest attacks do not automatically mean that another round of increases will follow. Pricing will depend on the duration of the fighting, the availability of fuel from alternative suppliers, African stock levels and whether shipping through Hormuz experiences another major interruption.

Nevertheless, Brent crude traded around $96 a barrel after the latest escalation, keeping pressure on refiners and transport companies.

    **Limited refining capacity deepens Africa’s vulnerability**

A Reuters investigation found that Africa’s limited refining capacity made it more vulnerable than regions with larger domestic fuel industries and deeper reserves.

Several African refineries cannot meet local aviation demand, while others operate inconsistently. Airlines and fuel distributors therefore rely on supplies shipped from the Middle East, Europe and Asia.

South Africa, for example, has only two major operating crude-oil refineries after the closure of larger facilities. Import-dependent markets in East and Southern Africa are also vulnerable to longer delivery times and higher freight costs when global supply routes are disrupted.

The immediate question is whether the latest confrontation will affect physical shipments or merely introduce another risk premium into oil prices.

No major African airline has announced a new surcharge specifically connected to the 5 September attacks. Passengers should therefore not assume that an increase is inevitable.

However, with fuel already consuming a disproportionate share of airline revenue, a sustained disruption could quickly move from the Strait of Hormuz to ticket prices at African airports.