Kariba water allocation slashed 36 percent for 2027 as El Nino looms

Walter Nyamukondiwa

Mashonaland West Bureau Chief

Zimbabwe and Zambia will have 36 percent less water for electricity generation at Lake Kariba in 2027 after the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) cut allocations to 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) in anticipation of an El Niño-induced drought.

The allocation, down from 36 BCM this year, reflects forecasts of below-normal rainfall across much of the region, raising the prospect of renewed pressure on power generation in the two countries.

In a statement on Wednesday, ZRA acting chief executive Mr Peter Kapinga said Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and Zambia’s ZESCO Limited would each receive 11.5 BCM.

The decision draws on the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, in August, as well as forecasts from the two countries’ meteorological services and the authority’s own inflow projections.

SARCOF-33 forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Southern Africa between October 2026 and March 2027. Southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe are expected to experience drier conditions early in the season, with the deficit likely to persist across most areas from January to March.

Under the planned utilisation, Lake Kariba is projected to close 2027 at 476.80 metres above sea level, with only 5.83 BCM of usable water remaining — about nine percent of its live storage.

The reduced allocation follows a stronger recovery in water levels this year, which saw the 2026 allocation increased from 30 BCM to 36 BCM after good inflows during the 2025/26 rainy season.

As of October 14, the lake stood at 480.65 metres, holding 23.77 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 36.68 percent of usable storage capacity. On the same date last year, it stood at 477.34 metres, with 8.25 BCM, or 12.75 percent of usable storage.

However, the remaining allocations for this year are tightening. ZPC’s Kariba South Bank Power Station had 6.13 BCM left from its 18 BCM allocation as of the latest update, while ZESCO’s Kariba North Bank Power Station had 3.53 BCM remaining.

The authority projects that the lake will close 2026 with 16.24 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 25.10 percent of live storage, which will form the starting reserve for 2027.

Mr Kapinga said the authority monitors water use daily and engages the two utilities through joint technical committee meetings to ensure compliance with allocations and respond to changing hydrological conditions.

“The authority recognises the importance of Lake Kariba in so far as electricity supply and economic activity in both Contracting States are concerned,” he said, adding that the public would be updated on operational decisions.

The ZRA urged the public to follow updates from the authority and national meteorological services to support early planning as the region prepares for potentially drier conditions.

Source: Kariba water allocation slashed 36 percent for 2027 as El Nino looms – herald

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