The weather service predicts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across South Africa from October to January 2027.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) warns of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures from October through January 2027 as the strongest El Niño in living memory brews.
Saws says the strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean will likely bring drier and warmer conditions over most of the country this spring and summer.
According to the weather service, El Niño is when the sea surface in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than normal.
A strong El Niño is when it is more than 1.5°C warmer than usual for three months on average, and a very strong El Niño is when it is more than 2°C warmer.
The South African Weather Service said on Tuesday that predictions indicate that this El Niño could become the strongest in living memory.
Most El Niño events bring conditions of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region.
“The latest seasonal forecast of the South African Weather Service for the October to December 2026 period indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa. This period is also very likely to be associated with above-normal temperatures,” Saws said.
“The rainfall and temperature forecast for the November 2026 to January 2027 period is very similar to that of the October to December 2026 period, with the most likely outcome for drier and warmer conditions over most of the country.”
The most impactful El Niños for the southern African regions were in 1982-83 and 2015-16, which brought widespread droughts and unprecedented heatwaves.
However, the weather service said a very strong El Niño event of 1997-98 was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region.
“It should therefore be noted that, although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every single El Niño event is associated with drought,” Saws said.
Combined with global warming, the weather service said this strong El Niño is expected to make 2027 the warmest year on record.
“If the 2026-27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur. These heatwaves have the potential to be severe,” Saws said.
The South African Weather Service added that uncertainty remains about the El Niño’s final strength and regional impacts.
For this reason, Saws will closely monitor and communicate the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event.
