BY BUKOLA ARO-LAMBO, OLUSHOLA BELLO, Lagos, AND JAMES KWEN, Abuja Nigeria must generate an additional $642 billion in economic output within the next four years to achieve the federal government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030, based on the latest second-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released by the National Bureau of […]
BY BUKOLA ARO-LAMBO, OLUSHOLA BELLO, Lagos, AND JAMES KWEN, Abuja
Nigeria must generate an additional $642 billion in economic output within the next four years to achieve the federal government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030, based on the latest second-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figures indicate that the economy would need to almost triple its current dollar value within four years to meet the target.
NBS data showed that Nigeria’s GDP stood at N119.294 trillion in Q2 2026, translating to an annualised value of N477.176 trillion. At an exchange rate of N1,332.94 to the dollar, the economy is currently valued at approximately $358 billion.
This means Nigeria would need to add about $642 billion to reach the $1 trillion target by 2030.
The Federal Government announced the target in October 2023, when the exchange rate averaged about N785 to the dollar, compared with the current rate of N1,332.
An economist and Vice President of Highcap Securities Limited, David Adnori, said while President Bola Tinubu’s demand-side reforms had laid important groundwork, they were insufficient to deliver a $1 trillion economy within four years.
“All previous administrations have pursued the same goal of building a strong and virile economy. President Tinubu’s policies have come to address areas of structural rigidity,” Adnori said.
He cited the deregulation of the petroleum industry and the floating of the naira under a more market-driven foreign exchange regime as important reforms.
“Those are all building blocks towards the attainment of a $1 trillion economy. But they are not sufficient to take Nigeria aggressively, in the shortest possible time, towards attaining that goal,” he said.
According to him, the major challenge now lies on the supply side of the economy, requiring fiscal policies that can mobilise factors of production and remove constraints to production and trade.
He identified housing, agriculture and mining as critical areas requiring urgent attention.
“We still have a supply gap in the area of housing. The housing deficit is over 20 million. Agriculture is also a major enabler of the supply side.
“Nigeria has over 35 million hectares of arable land, but less than five per cent is under cultivation, and we are still doing subsistence agriculture, not mechanised agriculture. Terrorists and bandits have also captured most of the farmlands,” he said.
Adnori added that insecurity had crippled the mining sector, which he described as a fulcrum for industrialisation.
“The natural resources that Nigeria is endowed with that ought to propel the supply side of the economy are latent. They are not activated,” he said.
He also identified the absence of foundational industries as a major constraint to industrialisation.
“Foundational industries are also missing. The metallurgical industry is almost non-existent. The tools, machinery and equipment industry required for industrialisation is absent. Without engineering infrastructure, production will be stifled. Production ought to contribute almost 80 per cent to the attainment of the $1 trillion goal,” he said.
Adnori urged the government to introduce targeted incentives to boost production in critical sectors.
“The government has to come up with appropriate policies to incentivise production. Those are the same sectors that will produce machinery for mechanising agriculture and for building roads, rail and ports from domestic resources,” he said.
Other economists, who asked not to be named, said the $1 trillion target was unrealistic under current conditions, arguing that achieving it would require a dramatic and sustained acceleration in real output and investment.
They noted that Nigeria’s economy, currently estimated at about $358 billion in dollar terms, would have to more than double in four years.
Nigeria’s real GDP growth has remained within the 3–4.5 per cent range in recent quarters, despite recording 4.43 per cent growth in Q2 2026.
They argued that even if the naira strengthened and boosted nominal dollar GDP through exchange-rate effects, real production across factories, farms and services would still have to expand substantially faster than the current 4–5 per cent trajectory for the target to represent meaningful economic expansion.
At the current growth trajectory of about four per cent annually, they projected that Nigeria’s economy could reach only about $450 billion by 2030, with the $1 trillion threshold potentially reached closer to 2040.
Even under a more optimistic scenario of 10 per cent annual growth, they estimated that the economy would reach about $773 billion by 2030 and cross the $1 trillion mark around 2032.
Analysts also identified persistent naira depreciation, inadequate infrastructure financing and difficulties in mobilising the scale of private capital required for rapid economic expansion as major structural constraints.
Investor concerns over governance and contract enforcement, they added, could further limit the flow of private capital needed to drive the required expansion.
An independent forecast by the ISS Africa’s Nigeria Development Futures model projected that, under the current development trajectory, Nigeria would cross the $1 trillion threshold in 2034, rather than 2030, reaching about $1.5 trillion by 2043.
Government optimistic
Despite the concerns raised by economists, the Federal Government maintains that Nigeria remains on course to achieve the $1 trillion target by 2030.
President Bola Tinubu described the economy as being on an “irreversible path” to stronger growth following the latest GDP figures released by the NBS.
In a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President said the latest figures showed that the economic reforms implemented by his administration were yielding results.
“In the past three years, we tried to do the hard part by implementing the necessary reforms to stabilise the economy. Now the economy is stabilised, and we have laid the foundation for a prosperous nation. The results of the efforts are becoming very clear to all: The Renewed Hope Agenda is working,” the President said.
Similarly, the Ministry of Finance said the economy was on course to achieve the $1 trillion GDP target by 2030, citing stronger growth and resilience.
It said real GDP expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026. Growth for the first half of 2026 consequently rose to 4.16 per cent, from 3.68 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
The ministry said growth was becoming more broad-based, with 27 economic subsectors recording real growth above three per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 23 in the same period of 2025.
Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent, more than double the 1.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2025. Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent, compared with 2.82 per cent, while services, the largest contributor to growth, expanded by 4.60 per cent, up from 3.94 per cent.
The ministry also attributed the expansion of the economy in dollar terms to the relative stability and appreciation of the naira.
It said the naira appreciated by more than 12 per cent between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, resulting in an approximately 17 per cent expansion of the economy in US dollar terms over the period.
It added that sustaining the growth momentum alongside the government’s social programmes could strengthen dollar incomes, improve purchasing power and lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
“Given this momentum, Nigeria is well positioned to consolidate its standing among Africa’s largest economies and to advance towards the Government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030,” the ministry stated.
It said continued macroeconomic stability, sustained growth across productive sectors and improving investor confidence would accelerate Nigeria’s progression towards becoming Africa’s largest economy by 2028.
The ministry, however, stressed the need for the government to sustain its reforms and ensure policy consistency as the benefits of the measures begin to reach households.
2027: We must consolidate reforms, attain $1trn economy – APC
Ahead of the 2027 general election, the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Prof Nentawe Yilwatda, has urged Nigerians to reject any attempt to reverse the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, saying the country must consolidate on the progress already made.
Yilwatda said Nigerians would hear several promises as the 2027 elections approach, including proposals to reverse some reforms and create prosperity without addressing the structural problems that brought the country to its current position.
He said the APC had chosen progress, productivity, investment, infrastructure, innovation, Nigerian enterprise, exports, human capital development and President Tinubu’s ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030 as the pathway to common prosperity.
Speaking at the second edition of the Policy Roundtable of the APC Professionals Forum, tagged the Asiwaju Scorecard Series, in Abuja on Tuesday, Yilwatda said the $1 trillion economy was not merely a number but a national mission aimed at increasing production and exports, attracting investment, creating jobs and giving young Nigerians a greater stake in the country’s future.
“Most Nigerians have asked, why the ambitious $1 trillion economy by Mr President? The $1 trillion economy is not merely a number, but a national mission: a Nigeria that produces more, exports more, attracts more investment, creates more jobs and gives its young people a greater stake in the future,” he said.
He said achieving the target would require massive investment in infrastructure.
“You cannot build a $1 trillion economy on inadequate infrastructure. That is why the Renewed Hope Agenda places major emphasis on strategic highways, railways, ports, energy infrastructure and digital connectivity. But we must think beyond individual projects,” he said.
Yilwatda, who represented President Tinubu at the event, said the administration inherited a difficult economic situation in 2023, characterised by fuel subsidy distortions, multiple exchange-rate windows, weak revenue mobilisation and foreign exchange shortages.
He said Tinubu consequently took difficult decisions, including the removal of fuel subsidy and reform of the foreign exchange market.
“The evidence increasingly shows that the foundation is strengthening. Nigeria’s gross external reserves has risen to about $52.7 billion by August 2026. Consolidated non-oil revenue increased from approximately N13.63 trillion in 2023 to N16.4 trillion in the first two quarters of 2026,” he said.
He added that the country’s merchandise trade surplus rose from about N44.8 billion for the whole of 2023 to approximately N7.54 trillion in Q1 2026, while real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent and inflation fell to about 15.4 per cent.
“These figures do not mean that our economic challenges have disappeared, but they demonstrate that the direction of travel has changed. And let me emphasise: macroeconomic stability is not the destination; it is the foundation. The ultimate test is when stability translates into cheaper food, more jobs, affordable credit, reliable electricity and greater purchasing power for Nigerians,” Yilwatda added.
The APC chairman also advocated an integrated five-port maritime and logistics corridor linking major deep-sea ports in Lagos, Ondo, Ibom, Port Harcourt and Calabar with modern rail and road infrastructure.
He said the Western Corridor should connect the maritime gateways to the interior through the Lagos–Abuja–Kaduna–Kano rail corridor, complemented by the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway.
Yilwatda said the next phase of the Renewed Hope Agenda must translate macroeconomic stability into microeconomic prosperity through more food, jobs, lower inflation, affordable credit, reliable power, increased manufacturing, stronger exports and improved purchasing power.
“We must power our industries, develop our digital economy, educate our young people and mobilise the private capital required to transform our productive capacity,” he said.
“Above all, we must begin to see Nigeria differently, not merely as a large domestic market, but as a potential maritime, industrial, digital and logistics powerhouse for Africa.
“The foundation has been laid. The opportunity is before us. The work has begun. Now we must take Nigeria from reform to results, from results to growth, from growth to prosperity, and from prosperity to a $1 trillion economy by 2030,” he stated.
Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the APC Professionals Forum, Dr Isa Yuguda, urged Nigerians to carefully evaluate political promises ahead of the 2027 elections, particularly proposals to restore fuel subsidy.
Yuguda said former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s proposal to restore subsidy might appear attractive to citizens seeking immediate relief but should be assessed against the experience of the former regime.
He said the old subsidy regime was associated with massive leakages, fraudulent claims, inefficiency and a significant drain on public finances.
“Presenting a return to that system without clearly addressing these problems risks misleading Nigerians for short-term political gain and could reverse the fiscal space now supporting critical national investments,” he said.
“Every Nigerian has the democratic right to present alternative policies, but economic choices must be guided by facts, experience, sustainability, and the long-term interest of the country.”
He said the APC Professionals Forum’s policy roundtable was a platform for evidence-based assessment, constructive criticism and policy dialogue.
“The APC Professionals Forum remains committed to serving as a credible think tank that connects expertise, ideas, leadership, and the people for the progress and prosperity of Nigeria,” he added.
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