US moves to remove South Africa and Rwanda from AGOA trade programme

The United States plans to withdraw South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The move could disrupt billions of dollars in exports and deepen diplomatic tensions with Washington.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the development on Monday, 2 November. He said President Donald Trump had informed Congress and both governments about the proposed withdrawal.

The decision is expected to take effect on 1 January 2027.

Greer explained that an annual assessment by the Office of the United States Trade Representative found both countries had failed to satisfy AGOA’s eligibility requirements.

“President Trump found that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa are engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA’s eligibility criteria,” Greer said.

Furthermore, Washington raised concerns about restrictions on American businesses and investment opportunities. It also highlighted actions it considers threats to US national security and foreign policy interests.

What Is AGOA and Why Does It Matter?

AGOA is a US trade initiative established in 2000. It allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries to export thousands of products to America without paying import duties.

Over the years, the programme has strengthened economic ties between Washington and African countries. It has also supported businesses, employment and investment across the continent.

However, participating countries must satisfy several conditions to retain their benefits.

These include respecting the rule of law, protecting workers’ rights and supporting political pluralism. Governments must also maintain market-based economic policies and remove obstacles to American trade and investment.

The United States reviews each country’s eligibility annually.

Why Washington Is Targeting South Africa and Rwanda

South Africa’s relationship with the Trump administration has deteriorated considerably. Washington has repeatedly criticised Pretoria over its domestic policies and international relations.

The latest decision adds another challenge to an already strained diplomatic relationship.

In particular, the American government has raised concerns about trade restrictions, investment barriers and corruption. It also claims certain South African government actions threaten American security and foreign policy interests.

Meanwhile, Rwanda faces additional criticism over developments in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Trump administration has raised concerns involving human rights, workers’ rights and political pluralism. It has also questioned Rwanda’s commitment to the rule of law.

Furthermore, analysts link Washington’s decision to tensions surrounding the conflict in eastern DR Congo. The United States has accused Rwanda of supporting rebel groups operating in the region.

Washington has already imposed sanctions on several Rwandan individuals and institutions.

South Africa Faces the Biggest Economic Impact

South Africa could suffer the most significant economic consequences if the withdrawal proceeds.

The country remains AGOA’s largest beneficiary and exported approximately US$1.7 billion in goods under the programme during 2025.

Its major exports include motor vehicle components, citrus products and wine.

Consequently, losing preferential access could place considerable pressure on businesses exporting to the American market.

South Africa’s trade ministry has indicated that it will continue pursuing investment and trade opportunities with Washington.

The ministry also intends to support industries that could experience difficulties following the suspension.

Rwanda’s exposure is considerably smaller because its AGOA exports remain relatively limited. Its exports to the United States include products such as coffee and minerals.

What Happens If the Withdrawal Takes Effect?

South African and Rwandan exporters could lose their duty-free access to the American market from January 2027.

Consequently, their products may face import tariffs when entering the United States. This could increase prices and make their goods less competitive against international suppliers.

South Africa’s automotive and agricultural industries could face particularly difficult conditions.

Businesses relying on American customers may experience reduced demand and increased operating pressure. Additionally, thousands of jobs connected to exports could come under threat.

Ultimately, the proposed withdrawal represents another setback for economic relations between Washington and the two African countries.

However, its full impact will depend on the final implementation of the decision and subsequent trade arrangements.

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