Kemi Badenoch Overtakes Nigel Farage in Shock Poll as Conservatives Close in on Labour

Kemi Badenoch has declared that the Conservative Party’s recovery is gaining momentum after a new YouGov poll placed the Tories ahead of Reform UK for the first time since 2024, offering the party fresh encouragement following its annual conference.

The survey suggests that Badenoch’s efforts to rebuild support after the Conservatives’ historic election defeat may be beginning to pay off, although Labour remains narrowly ahead in the latest voting intentions.

Conservatives Gain Ground as Reform UK Slips to Third Place

The latest YouGov figures put the Conservatives on 23 per cent, representing a three-point increase since the party’s conference in Birmingham.

Reform UK fell to 21 per cent, placing Nigel Farage’s party in third position on the polling firm’s voting intention tracker for the first time since 2024.

Labour recorded a three-point decline to 24 per cent, leaving the governing party just one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives.

The figures provide further evidence of a possible conference bounce for Badenoch, following an Opinium poll over the weekend that also indicated an improvement in Conservative support.

For Tory strategists, the results offer some relief after concerns that improved public perceptions of their leader were not translating into stronger backing for the party as a whole.

Badenoch Says Conservative Momentum Is Just Beginning

Speaking during a visit to Essex, Badenoch expressed confidence that the improvement in polling would continue, arguing that voters were beginning to recognise changes within the party under her leadership.

She acknowledged the scale of the Conservatives’ defeat two years ago and accepted that the party had made significant mistakes while in government.

Badenoch said she had sought to understand and acknowledge those failures while presenting a new direction for the party.

She argued that the Conservatives were uniquely positioned to offer voters what she described as common-sense policies and a credible plan to bring the country together.

According to the Tory leader, the latest figures represent only the beginning of a broader recovery rather than a temporary improvement following the party conference.

Reform UK Faces Fresh Challenge From the Conservatives

Badenoch also used the polling results to question whether Reform UK could offer voters a convincing alternative to Labour.

She suggested that the public had been examining Farage’s party more closely and were becoming less enthusiastic about what they had seen.

The Conservative leader said her priority was to persuade voters unhappy with Labour that the Tories remained the only credible alternative capable of forming a government.

Her comments underline the growing contest between the Conservatives and Reform UK for support among voters seeking a change from the current government.

However, the latest figures do not establish whether the Conservatives’ gains will last or whether Reform UK’s decline will continue in subsequent polls.

Inheritance Tax Pledge Takes Centre Stage in Badenoch’s Plans

A major feature of Badenoch’s recent conference speech was a proposal to remove inheritance tax on family homes, allowing couples to benefit from a combined allowance of £1 million.

The Conservative leader said the proposed £6 billion tax-cutting measure would be funded through reductions in welfare spending.

The pledge forms part of a wider package of housing-related tax proposals, following the party’s previous commitment to abolish stamp duty and its more recent promise to scrap Labour’s proposed mansion tax.

Badenoch presented the measures as evidence that the Conservatives remained committed to homeownership and rewarding people who work hard and save.

She argued that families should be able to pass on property to their children and grandchildren without facing inheritance tax on their homes.

The Tory leader also criticised Labour’s approach, saying the governing party regarded passing on wealth earned during a person’s lifetime as selfish.

Polling Gains Do Not Guarantee an Early General Election

Despite the improvement in Conservative support, the latest survey is unlikely to settle speculation in Westminster about the possibility of an early general election.

Andy Burnham has denied considering an early ballot, although Badenoch’s team reportedly remained alert to the possibility during Labour’s conference.

The Conservatives have nevertheless been preparing for an election for several months. Since July, the party has held election-planning meetings and developed a draft manifesto alongside a campaign schedule identifying constituencies Badenoch could visit and public appearances she could make.

The preparations indicate that the party is seeking to be ready should an election be called sooner than expected.

However, the current distribution of support would almost certainly point towards a hung Parliament, making it difficult to predict which party or combination of parties would ultimately form a government.

YouGov Warns Against Reading Too Much Into Weekly Changes

While the latest results suggest the Conservatives may be benefiting from Badenoch’s conference performance, YouGov cautioned that weekly movements in voting intention can be difficult to interpret.

The pollsters said the figures appeared to show a Conservative bounce but stressed that the changes remained within the margin of error.

They warned that it was difficult to distinguish a genuine shift in public opinion from ordinary polling fluctuations.

For Badenoch, the challenge will be to turn the latest improvement into sustained support by convincing voters that the Conservatives have learned from their time in government and can provide a credible alternative to Labour.

The coming weeks should offer a clearer indication of whether the party’s apparent recovery represents a lasting change in political fortunes or a short-lived post-conference boost.