2027: The Developing Acrimony

*Growing anti-opposition sentiments in states and institutional complicity are combining to supercharge tensions ahead of 2027, writes *Vincent Obia

For Festus Keyamo, the expected return to the frontline of President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 presidential campaign is another turn in a political journey that has taken him from the streets of pro-democracy activism to the courtroom, the campaign podium and the federal cabinet.

The recent confrontation in Kaduna State during an African Democratic Congress (ADC) rally was not an isolated incident. The attack on ADC supporters who gathered to flag off their 2027 governorship campaign laid bare the growing anti-opposition sentiments in the states.

The ADC rally and solidarity walk on September 10, the day after Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) opened campaigns for the 2027 governorship elections, turned violent after suspected political thugs invaded the gathering and security operatives deployed tear gas.

Kaduna State Police Command said the police used tear gas to disperse protesters, who blocked major roads, to prevent a breakdown of public order.

But ADC condemned the attack as a deplorable escalation at a time when political activities ahead of the elections were only just beginning.

ADC National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said, “No political party has a monopoly on non-state sanctioned violence. Once violence becomes an accepted instrument of political competition, nobody can predict where it ends.”

Attacks on opposition gatherings have become a flashpoint for the 2027 election campaigns, and a dangerous harbinger of the upcoming polls.

Since the official commencement of public campaigns for the next general election on August 19, the country has seen a rising incidence of pre-electoral friction, featuring attacks and attempts to intimidate the opposition.

That is despite the signing of a National Peace Committee (NPC) peace accord by political parties and their candidates on the eve of the commencement of the campaigns.

All Progressives Congress (APC) governors have been the major culprits. But there are fears that the vice may spread quickly to the few other states governed by the opposition parties.

The convoy of Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, was on September 8 blocked by suspected political thugs, chanting “Obi go back, Obi go back,”

as he arrived in Benue State. Obi was visiting to condole with victims of terrorist attacks in Yelewata community, Guma Local Government Area. But he was forced to turn back to avoid an outbreak of mass violence.

The APC-controlled Benue State government denied sponsorship of the confrontation, but it failed to condemn the attack.

The government claimed it was not aware of Obi’s visit to the state, and blamed the NDC candidate for coming into the state without proper official notification.

The government stated that the governor, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia, a Catholic priest, “is a peace-loving Reverend gentleman. He is averse to the promotion of thuggery.”

It alleged, “It is, therefore, curious that an individual presenting himself as a presidential candidate could arrive in a state without the relevant security authorities being formally informed of his movement.”

The Alia government also stated, “Ordinarily, such a visit would attract the attention and necessary security coordination involving the Commissioner of Police and other relevant security agencies.”

But the police in Benue State exploded the state government’s claims. Benue State Police Command said they were notified about Obi’s visit, and they provided security for him and his team.

Commissioner of Police, Mr Cletus Nwadiogbu, said, “I also asked the AC Operations to personally lead the men. But unfortunately on his arrival we heard that youth blocked the roads, saying they did not want to see him. We tactically managed the situation but we are investigating why they took that decision.”

Nwadiogbu added, “The man is very responsible. When that happened, he went back and boarded his plane and left.”

The inconsistency in the authorities’ accounts is stark.

Obi had faced a similar hostility in Benue State in April last year, when he had to shelve a planned visit to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and a nursing school. Alia gave similar reasons bordering on protocol for preventing that humanitarian visit to the state.

What seems obvious from the incidents is a recurring pattern of coordinated antagonism against Obi by the APC government in Benue State, where the NDC presidential candidate came in a very close second place in the 2023 election. Bola Tinubu of APC won Benue State with 310,468 votes, with only 2,096 votes separating him from Obi, who scored 308,372 votes.

Benue presented one of the tightest state races in the 2023 presidential election, and APC seems to be guarding against any slips that may turn the table against it in 2027. But it is chasing that goal in a risky game.

There have been attacks on the opposition in other APC states.

In Enugu State on September 12, an NDC ward meeting in Nkanu West was invaded by gunmen, who shot an injured some members of the party. On the same day in Agbani, Enugu State, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) gathering was disrupted and dispersed by armed men.

In Rivers State, on September 14, an ADC ward secretariat in Ikwerre Local Government Area was vandalised by gunmen, who shot also sporadically close to the residence of the party’s vice presidential candidate and former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi.

The build-up to the August 15 off-cycle governorship election in Osun State was equally very volatile. The period saw about 30 politically motivated deaths and series of violence.

Two forces feed the developing acrimony on the road to 2027: incendiary speech from political leaders and a system that responds only with silence or favouritism.

Before the Osun State election, APC senator, Francis Fadahunsi, was seen in a viral video breathing out extreme hostility against members of the rival Accord Party. Despite how bad Fadahunsi’s actions were, the police gave him a light slap on the wrist, which showed obvious favouritism.

The trivially lenient response by the Nigeria Police contrasted sharply with their disposition to Accord Party members and leaders in the state.

When institutions enable bad behaviour, it invites more undemocratic acts.

In July 2025, Edo State Governor Monday Okpebholo warned, “Obi must not come to Edo without security clearance.”

Okpebholo made the comment when he received the defecting last opposition lawmaker in the state, Marcus Onobun, into APC. And it followed Obi’s visit to Benin to make donations for the completion of some health projects in the state.

Curiously, a governor flaunting a state he claimed had almost become a politically homogenous entity was still wary about allowing strong opposition elements to campaign in the state.

Even more curious, perhaps, was the silence of the federal government and relevant state institutions in the face of the anomie.

It is trite law that a Nigerian citizen, including a political personality, does not require a permit, clearance, or prior approval from a state governor to visit a state in the country. The constitution guarantees every citizen the right to move freely throughout the country and reside in any part of it.

Under the Electoral Act and several court rulings, political figures and parties do not need police permits to hold rallies and public gatherings. Notification for security coverage is different from demanding permission.

The governors are engaged in mere political posturing, and the drama is threatening to consume whatever remains of the credibility of the process expected to shepherd the transition to a new government next year.

The hostility is spreading far and wide.

A few days ago, Chairman of Esan West Local Government Area of Edo State, Blessing Albert, warned commercial drivers in the council area never to wear caps or other promotional materials associated with opposition parties.

Albert gave the warning in a viral video while addressing commercial drivers at Onitsha Park, in Ekpoma.

“On no account will I see any driver put on a cap or any material that does not belong to APC,” Albert said in the video, where he was seen distributing APC-branded caps to the drivers.

He said violators risked ejection from the park.

Before Albert, the chairman of Kuje Area Council in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Samuel Shekwolo, sparked widespread outrage last month after a viral video captured him warning residents to either support APC or leave the area ahead of 2027.

In Kaduna State, APC has also alleged attack on its members and vandalism of its offices.

With barely one month in the electioneering process ahead of the 2027 general election, the country is confronting a familiar problem: toxic campaigns dwelling on sentiments, violence, and personal attacks, rather than contestation of ideas and proposals on how to address the issues hindering national progress.

The destructive behaviours – exactly conducts the parties and their leaders signed on August 18 to eschew – are exacerbated by institutional complicity, whether through inaction or partiality.

The peace committee, headed by former Head of State, General Abdulasalami Abubakar, and Bishop Matthew Kukah, has since 2014 emerged as a kind of rallying point for political stakeholders. There has been a kind of elite consensus on the signing of the “peace accord” by politicians before every election cycle as part efforts to ensure peaceful and credible polls.

The peace accord came into being in 2014 following the sensitive nature of the campaigns leading up to the 2015 general election.

The accord commits the candidates to issue-based campaigns devoid of violence, hate speech, personal attacks, and disinformation. NPC has since 2015 facilitated 30 peace accords, including five national-level accords and 25 at the subnational level.

Yet, nearly 900 persons have been killed in election-related violence since the initiation of the accord in 2015.

ADC’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, did not participate in the last peace accord ceremony on August 18 in protest against the failure of previous accords to address political violence.

ADC rejected the peace accord committee’s failure to condemn pre-election infractions and those involved.

The committee did not openly condemn Fadahunsi, or any of the recent hate-speech purveyors.

Abdullahi said staying away from the pre-election accord ritual was “our way of saying no”.

Ahead of the 2027 general election, intimidation is gradually replacing persuasion as the currency of the realm.

NPC deserves recognition for bringing rival politicians to the peace table ahead of voting cycles. But such symbolic gestures have become insufficient.

Many believe meaningful action must replace mere symbolism in the work of the peace committee if it is to remain relevant.

NPC’s Election Security Information Hub recently reported an “alarming resurgence” of hate speech, toxic polarisation, misinformation, and personality-driven political discourse.

But the peace committee must now go beyond condemnation of infractions to taking actions, like naming and shaming culprits.

Project coordinator at The Kukah Centre, Asabe Ndahi, says the peace accord document “has gone beyond a moral document, it has backing of the law – the constitution, Electoral Act, and all other legal frameworks that govern the electoral process”.

The acrimonious realities leading up to the 2027 elections require the peace committee to step up as a proactive group that holds individuals and institutions accountable.