‘El Niño could push Malawi into deeper economic crisis’

Malawi risks deeper economic damage if the government fails to adequately finance and implement measures to cushion the country against a potentially severe El Niño weather, economists have said.
Economist Marvin Banda cautioned against interpreting projected GDP impact as a certainty that Malawi would enter a recession.
“A GDP shock of 1–7 percent is a warning of potentially severe economic damage, not an automatic forecast of an outright annual contraction,” he said.
He said Malawi’s vulnerability lies not only in the potential weather shock but also in the pace of preparations, arguing that interventions must be implemented before farmers lose their crops and food shortages emerge.
“Malawi is staring at another potential agricultural catastrophe, yet our greatest vulnerability may not be El Niño itself, but a government response that risks arriving after the damage has been done,” Banda said.
As of September 2026, the government had mobilised K163.7 billion against the K488.5 billion required to implement the El Niño Preparedness Plan, according to Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee chairperson Justin Saidi.
The shortfall of K324.8 billion leaves about two-thirds of the plan’s required financing yet to be mobilised, raising concerns over whether the country can implement preventive measures at the necessary scale and speed.
Banda commended government for developing a preparedness plan, but said inadequate financing could undermine its effectiveness.
Another economist, Velli Nyirongo, said Malawi should treat the potential El Niño as a major economic risk as the country remains highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
He said the situation could also lead government to face increased spending on food assistance and disaster response at a time when its fiscal space is already limited.
“Preparedness must therefore move beyond contingency planning to immediate, adequately funded action,” Nyirongo said.
Nyirongo called for increased investment in irrigation, and climate-smart agriculture, alongside timely access to affordable farm inputs.
Meanwhile, agriculture policy analyst Leonard Chimwaza noted that establishment of a special government task force on El Niño and the development of public awareness messages by the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) were positive steps in preparing for the anticipated weather phenomenon.
During the 2023/24 El Niño season, maize output fell by about 23 percent, from 3.5 million metric tonnes to 2.7 million metric tonnes, while about 5.7 million people, representing 26 percent of the population, faced acute food insecurity, according to IFPRI.