David Ndii Explains Why Milk Is Disappearing From Kenyan Supermarket Shelves

Chief Economic Adviser David Ndii has attributed the milk shortages reported in Kenyan supermarkets to rising consumption, arguing that the country is producing more milk than it did when President William Ruto took office.

Speaking at the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, Ndii dismissed concerns that declining production was responsible for the reported stockouts, pointing instead to increased demand from previously underserved consumers.

He cited affordable housing construction sites as an example of how consumption patterns were changing, revealing that hundreds of thousands of workers were receiving milk as part of the supplies provided by contractors.

Ndii explained that milk was increasingly being consumed by people whose households previously purchased smaller quantities, creating additional demand that was not immediately apparent to many consumers.

He said crates of milk could be found at construction sites where workers were provided with milk alongside other essential supplies.

According to figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) cited by Ndii, national milk production has increased by approximately 20 per cent since the current administration assumed office, reaching an estimated 5.6 billion litres annually.

He argued that the additional production alone exceeded the annual dairy output of most African countries.

Ndii also revealed that milk deliveries to processing companies had increased by 34 per cent, rising from approximately 500 million litres in 2022 to one billion litres last year.

He added that processor intake during the first eight months of 2026 remained close to the levels recorded during the corresponding period in 2025, despite concerns over drought.

The economist maintained that stronger consumer demand, rather than falling production, was the most likely explanation for milk disappearing from supermarket shelves.

Beyond consumption, Ndii estimated that Kenya’s annual milk production was worth nearly Ksh400 billion at current farm-gate prices.

He further highlighted growing demand for quality dairy cattle, noting that productive heifers were selling for between Ksh300,000 and Ksh350,000.

Ndii also pointed to Kenya’s growing dairy trade, revealing that the country was importing cattle from South Africa and the Netherlands while exporting dairy animals to other African markets.

He argued that rapid changes in the agricultural sector were not always adequately captured by existing economic statistics, urging improvements in how emerging economic activities were measured.

https://peopledaily.digital/news/david-ndii-says-affordable-housing-projects-are-fuelling-increased-milk-consumption-in-kenya

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