2027: Tinubu’s northern support faces test amid economic hardship

The All Progressives Congress, APC, has formally launched its campaign for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027, drawing thousands of supporters, political officeholders and party leaders to Kaduna, even as differing opinions among northern Nigerians raise questions about the extent of the president’s support in the region.

The rally, held on Saturday under heavy security, attracted governors, ministers, senators, members of the National Assembly and state legislatures, as well as APC leaders from across the country.

Reports from Kaduna indicated that hotels were fully occupied, with some supporters reportedly spending the night in vehicles and along the streets because of the large turnout.

Speakers at the rally called for northern unity behind Tinubu’s re-election bid, citing projects and policies they said had benefited the region. They also argued that the president had demonstrated political consideration for the North by supporting the emergence of leaders from the region at different levels of government.

However, the large turnout has not settled the debate over Tinubu’s popularity in the North, where some citizens have expressed dissatisfaction with the administration’s economic policies, while others believe the president deserves another term to consolidate ongoing reforms.

Some spectators were reportedly heard expressing disapproval as prominent guests made their way to the venue. However, the significance of such reactions remains difficult to establish without broader evidence of public opinion.

Rally crowds do not guarantee electoral support — Fagge

Speaking to DAILY POST, Professor Kamilu Sani Fagge, a political scientist at Bayero University, Kano, cautioned against interpreting the number of people at the APC rally as evidence that Tinubu enjoys widespread support among northern voters.

He said political rallies could attract people for reasons other than a commitment to vote for the candidate being promoted.

“This rally does not show love for the president, and not everyone who attends it will vote for President Tinubu,” Fagge said.

“In a democratic system, such gatherings should not be taken as a decisive measure of electoral support. The people who come to watch a rally may simply want to see what is happening and have something to report. Even when another politician organises a rally, you may see the same people attending as spectators.”

The professor also commented on the choice of venue, suggesting that it could influence perceptions of the size of the gathering.

“The APC’s decision to use Ranchers Bees Stadium instead of Ahmadu Bello Stadium makes strategic sense because Ranchers Bees is not so large. When people gather there, their numbers may appear more substantial than they would in a bigger stadium,” he said.

Businessman cites rising costs as reason to reject Tinubu

To examine the differing opinions among Nigerians ahead of the 2027 elections, DAILY POST spoke with individuals from different professional and social backgrounds about their assessment of Tinubu’s administration and whether they would support his re-election.

Alhaji Nasir Tukur, an Abuja-based businessman and former bank employee, said the economic difficulties experienced by businesses under the current administration had weakened his confidence in the president.

He attributed the challenges to rising transportation costs, higher commodity prices and government policies that, according to him, had increased the cost of doing business.

“The harsh economic conditions businesses are experiencing have led to the collapse of many of them. Federal Government policies have directly affected our businesses by causing unprecedented increases in the prices of commodities,” Tukur said.

He recalled that when he began distributing products for major manufacturers in 2016, prices were considerably lower than they are today.

According to him, flour products that previously sold for between N5,000 and N7,000 now cost between N50,000 and N55,000, a development he said had forced many retailers out of the market.

Tukur also criticised what he described as increasing tax pressures on businesses, arguing that changes to taxation and government revenue policies had further weakened commercial activities.

“Another factor responsible for the increase in prices is the recent review of tariffs and revenue derivation by the federal, state and local governments. The pressure has pushed many businesses to their lowest point,” he said.

He added that the difficulties had contributed to companies laying off workers, further increasing the number of people seeking employment.

“All these unpopular government policies have significantly contributed to business collapses, forcing companies to lay off a large number of employees into the labour market,” Tukur said.

The businessman questioned why anyone experiencing such difficulties would consider voting for the incumbent administration in 2027.

His position reflects the concerns of some business owners who say rising operating costs, inflation and taxation have undermined their ability to sustain their businesses and retain employees.

Lecturer backs Tinubu, cites economic reforms and infrastructure

However, Dr Faruk Sadi, a lecturer at a tertiary institution in Kano, offered a contrasting assessment, arguing that the administration should be judged by its policies, implementation and measurable outcomes rather than solely by the immediate difficulties associated with economic reforms.

Sadi said he supported giving Tinubu another opportunity to complete ongoing programmes and consolidate the administration’s policies.

“My position rests on the record of what has been started, what has been delivered, and what remains to be completed. I believe that governments should be judged by their policies, their implementation, and the measurable difference they make in the lives of ordinary people,” he said.

The lecturer cited the unification of the foreign exchange market, changes to the national minimum wage, the student loan scheme and infrastructure projects as reasons for his position.

He also pointed to the administration’s efforts to expand alternative transportation through compressed natural gas, alongside railway and highway projects intended to improve connectivity and trade.

Sadi acknowledged that the economic situation remained difficult for many Nigerians but argued that the impact of government reforms should be assessed through evidence of their results.

“I acknowledge that many households still feel the weight of high prices, and the benefits of these reforms must be measured by evidence, not promised by rhetoric,” he said.

His position reflects the argument among supporters of the administration that, despite the immediate costs associated with some policies, the reforms could deliver longer-term economic and infrastructural benefits.

North’s political mood remains contested ahead of 2027

The contrasting views show the competing considerations shaping political discussions ahead of the 2027 general elections.

For some voters, the cost of living, business survival, employment opportunities and household purchasing power remain central to their assessment of the administration. Others place greater emphasis on economic reforms, infrastructure development and the completion of ongoing projects.

The APC’s campaign has provided an opportunity for the party to demonstrate its organisational strength. However, the extent to which its rally mobilisation reflects broader public support remains an open question.

Attention is also expected to turn to opposition parties, including the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, as they prepare their own activities ahead of the 2027 elections.

Their ability to present credible alternatives and persuade voters will form part of the wider contest over the political direction of the North.

Ultimately, the extent of Tinubu’s support among northern voters will become clearer as the election approaches, with voters’ decisions at the ballot box providing the decisive measure of his electoral backing in the region.

2027: Tinubu’s northern support faces test amid economic hardship