$1trn Economy: Nigeria Must Grow 28% Annually To Hit 2030 Target – Experts

Nigeria will need to sustain an annual compound growth rate of about 28 per cent over the next five years to achieve the federal government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030, economic experts have said.

The experts, who spoke at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture (OML) held in Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos, said the ambitious target would require far more than Nigeria’s large population, stressing the need for higher productivity, savings, investment, policy consistency and stronger institutions.

The lecture, themed, “One Trillion Dollar Economy: What It Will Take Nigeria to Achieve the Goal,” brought together business and management experts to examine the country’s economic trajectory and the reforms required to achieve the 2030 ambition.

The keynote speaker and president of the Chartered Institute of Directors (CIoD) Nigeria, Mr Adetunji Oyebanji, said Nigeria’s 2025 nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately $290.79 billion means the economy would need to grow at a compound annual rate of about 28.02 per cent between 2026 and 2030 to reach $1 trillion.

Oyebanji said the calculation was not a forecast but a benchmark showing the scale of expansion required to achieve the government’s target.

He noted that the required growth rate was significantly above Nigeria’s historical economic performance, adding that the country had consistently recorded real GDP growth below the 6–7 per cent annual level considered necessary for economies with high population growth to achieve broad-based improvements in income and living standards.

According to him, projections based on Nigeria’s historical growth patterns indicate that maintaining current trends would leave the country’s GDP well below the $1 trillion target by 2030.

“This rate far exceeds Nigeria’s historical performance and underscores the scale of economic expansion required. Rather than serving as a forecast, this calculation establishes the benchmark against which future economic performance may be assessed,” he said.

Oyebanji identified governance and institutional effectiveness as critical to accelerating economic growth, saying the transition to a trillion-dollar economy would require credible macroeconomic management, policy consistency, regulatory certainty, efficient public institutions, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, infrastructure development and an investment-friendly business environment.

He said recent reforms in monetary policy, tax administration, capital market regulation and petroleum sector governance had demonstrated that institutional reforms could improve economic confidence, but warned that such reforms must be sustained and deepened.

The CIoD president identified seven productive sectors that could drive sustained expansion: oil, gas and energy transition; agriculture and agro-processing; manufacturing and industrial development; technology and the digital economy; infrastructure; solid minerals; and services and creative industries.

He also called for a shift from the export of raw materials to domestic processing and value addition.

“Nigeria needs to become a refinery for much of West Africa so that rather than exporting raw food, we export refined and processed products. That will add much more value than ever before,” Oyebanji said.

To improve the chances of achieving the $1 trillion target, he recommended disciplined fiscal and monetary policies to reduce inflation and strengthen exchange-rate stability, alongside greater policy consistency and coordination across government.

He also called for accelerated investment in electricity, transport, ports, railways, broadband and logistics to reduce the cost of doing business and improve productivity.

On revenue, Oyebanji urged full implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, expansion of the tax base, improved compliance and the use of digital systems to reduce revenue leakages.

He further advocated private-sector-led growth through an improved business environment, reduced bureaucratic bottlenecks, protection of property rights and greater access to long-term finance.

Earlier, a management expert, Dr Michael Omolayole, warned that Nigeria could not rely on its large population alone to achieve the $1 trillion ambition.

He said countries such as China, India, Brazil and the United States had leveraged large populations alongside productivity, investment, savings and strong work ethics to build large economies.

“Population plays a key role, but population alone cannot achieve it. You must have productivity and determination,” Omolayole said.

He urged Nigerians to increase productivity, work harder and develop a stronger culture of savings, noting that excessive consumption without adequate savings would constrain economic expansion.

“We spend far more than we earn. Any country that cannot save cannot expand. So we must save and work hard tirelessly,” he said.

Despite the scale of the challenge, Omolayole said the $1 trillion target was achievable if government, businesses and citizens worked together.

“The target is doable if everyone works together,” he said.

Oyebanji, however, stressed that the ultimate measure of economic expansion should be its impact on citizens, arguing that a larger GDP must translate into stronger public finances, more jobs, better education and healthcare, enterprise development and reduced poverty.

“Economic size, therefore, should be viewed not as an end in itself but as a means of improving national welfare and creating shared prosperity,” he said.

He said the gap between Nigeria’s approximately $291 billion economy and the $1 trillion ambition was not merely an arithmetic challenge but a structural and institutional one requiring improvements in governance, productivity, competitiveness and public institutions.

He urged the government to maintain consistency, discipline, transparency and accountability in implementing reforms, while calling on the private sector to invest patiently in competitive businesses driven by innovation and productivity.

He also urged Nigerians to embrace innovation, entrepreneurship, productivity and excellence as part of the effort to achieve sustainable economic growth.

“Whether that milestone is reached in 2030 or shortly thereafter will depend on the choices made today, the discipline with which reforms are implemented, and the resolve to place national development above narrow interests,” Oyebanji said.