Turkey eyes energy self-sufficiency by 2040 but no coal exit yet

Poised to host the COP31 climate summit, Turkey has unveiled an ambitious $500 billion roadmap for electrifying its economy and slashing imports, but no clear timeline for exiting coal.

Just days before the UN conference opens in the resort city of Antalya, Turkey's energy minister launched its new National Energy Plan, seeking self-sufficiency by 2040 by ramping up renewables while also pushing new oil and gas investments.

As summit host, Turkey's own energy policies have come under scrutiny especially as coal accounts for a third of its power, making it the leading generator of coal-fired electricity in Europe, according to energy think tank Ember.

"When we reach 2040, we are going to reduce our emissions by 40 percent and this big change in electrification will make it happen," Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told reporters during a presentation given on Thursday but made public on Friday.

But that would require "a big paradigm shift" in energy demand in Turkey: "We need to change the demand from diesel or gasoline towards electricity," he said.

Under the plan -- which marks the halfway point towards the country's 2053 net zero target -- Turkey aims to meet 36 percent of its energy needs from electricity, up from around 22 percent today.

Its installed power capacity -- which stood at 123 GW in 2025 -- will increase to 281 GW, with the renewables share rising from 63 percent to 77 percent. Within that, wind and solar capacity will grow nearly fourfold, from 45 GW to 175 GW.

Oil imports

The plan also seeks to wean Turkey off its heavy dependence on energy imports. Bayraktar said Ankara has this year signed cooperation deals with oil majors such as Shell, Exxon, Chevron, ENI, Total and BP to accelerate its exploration both at home, as well as in Pakistan, Somalia and beyond.

"Our aim is to produce more oil and gas in Turkey and abroad," he said, pointing to a "huge project list" and plans to double production at its Black Sea gas field to 7.5 billion cubic metres in 2027.

The energy roadmap comes with a hefty price tag, requiring Turkey to raise "half a trillion dollars in investment" by 2040, Bayraktar said -- $210 billion from five public sector companies and the rest through foreign investment.

"If the world is serious about carbon neutrality ... to fight climate change and global warming, we need to find the money," he said.

'We need coal'

Asked about a possible roadmap for exiting coal in light of its planned 40-percent emissions reduction, Bayraktar said Turkey needed coal for its energy security.

"Why do we need coal? For security of supply. Equally important is that it's providing at least 30,000 to 40,000 people with employment," he said, pledging to outline plans for "a just transition on the coal side" at COP31.

Ultimately, an exit from coal would depend on how much Turkey was able to ramp up its nuclear power production.

"Nuclear is the key area for us to replace coal," he said.

"We need 10 GW of installed nuclear power generation capacity by the year 2040."

He said however it would take "until 2030" to know whether Turkey would have enough nuclear power by 2040 to replace coal.

Turkey is planning to open its first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast with the first reactor scheduled to be online by the year's end, Bayraktar said.

It also has another planned at Sinop on the Black Sea and a third in the western province of Thrace.

Bayraktar said Turkey was currently in talks with Canada, South Korea's Kepco, Russia's Rosatom and China.