Who Cares About The Kaduna Pact?

Senator George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), was clearly flying a kite when he invoked an alleged North-South power-rotation pact to argue that no northerner should contest the 2027 presidential election.

Speaking to supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the party’s zonal rally in Lafia last week, Akume said the North and South agreed in 1999 to rotate the presidency between them.

“I want us to consider one thing – that we agreed in Kaduna in 1999 to ensure that power rotates between the North and the South – eight years in the South and eight in the North. In 2031, northerners can field over 1,000 candidates. So, anyone from the North running for President today is not sincere. Let’s reject him 100 per cent, and I urge you not to accept him,” Akume said.

By weaponising this unwritten zoning agreement, Akume is gauging the political waters.

In 1999, after a distinguished civil service career that saw him rise to the pinnacle as Permanent Secretary, Akume assumed office as governor of Benue State.

Applying the logic of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai, who famously declared sitting governors the true “Dattawan Arewa” (elders of the North) in a desperate bid to justify his 2023 support for Tinubu, Akume undeniably qualified as a regional leader. As a sitting governor at that pivotal time, his status would have guaranteed him a front-row seat at any high-level meeting of northern stakeholders, including the gathering he now references.

What’s in the pact?

I think the SGF should provide further details on the form and structure of this pact. Assuming, without conceding, that such an agreement existed, on whose mandate did the authors act? Should a nation with a constitution and a functioning National Assembly be reminded of a pact made by self-proclaimed leaders? Why was this agreement not incorporated into the 1999 Constitution by amendment?

In defence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid, Akume declared that any Northern challenger lacks political sincerity. He argued that a foundational pact requires the presidency to rotate between the North and the South, making any attempt to bypass this agreement an act of bad faith.

If the arrangement were strictly based on eight-year terms, the South would have held the presidency from 1999 to 2007, the North from 2007 to 2015, and the South again from 2015 to 2023. The North would then have had its turn from 2023 to 2031. But that is not how the arrangement has played out. Across these election cycles, candidates from both the North and the South have contested the presidency.

From the dawn of the current republic to date, Nigeria has held presidential elections in 1998, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023. Was the North-South power-sharing arrangement a decisive factor in determining who could contest these elections? We all know the answer!

I recall that the 2003 election was fiercely contested between President Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), with more than 15 other candidates also in the race.

If Akume’s contention implies that presidential contests should be restricted to candidates from the region whose turn it is to produce the president, the 2003 election should have been contested solely by southerners, given Obasanjo’s southern origin. However, that was clearly not the case.

We had twenty candidates in the 2003 election, including Obasanjo, Muhammadu Buhari, Odumegwu Ojukwu, Gani Fawehinmi, Jim Nwobodo, Sarah Jibril, Balarabe Musa, Chris Okotie, Ike Nwachukwu, Arthur Nwanko, Emmanuel Okereke, Muhammad Dikko Yusuf, Kalu Idika Kalu, Yahaya Ndu, Tunji Braithwaite and Pere Ajuwa.

That was only four years after the 1999 pact Akume alluded to. Yet multiple northern candidates ran to succeed Obasanjo, a southerner. Why didn’t Akume and other supposed witnesses to the agreement demand that they shelve their ambitions until the following election cycle?

A Pact nobody observed

During the 2007 presidential election, which, under the alleged Kaduna Pact, was supposed to usher in eight years of northern leadership, 25 candidates contested the presidency. Were they all from the North? No.

We had President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Attahiru Bafarawa, Patrick Utomi, Chris Okotie, Pere Ajuwa, Odumegwu Ojukwu, Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Orji Uzor Kalu, Habu Fari, Arthur Nwanko, Sunny Okogwu, Olapade Agoro, Ambrose Owuru, Maxi Okwu, Asakarawon Olapere and Mojisola Obasanjo, among others.

Under the same arrangement, the 2011 election fell within the North’s supposed eight-year turn. Yet, there were 17 candidates, including Dele Momodu, Nuhu Ribadu, Ibrahim Shekarau, Peter Nwangwu, Iheanyichukwu Nnaji, Chris Okotie, Ambrose Awuru, Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari, Chris Nwaokobia, John Dara, and Nwadike Chikezie, among others.

A similar scenario unfolded during the 2015 general election, when fourteen candidates from both the North and the South competed, including Muhammadu Buhari and Ambassador Mani Ahmed from the North, even though it should have been the South’s turn under the alleged zoning arrangement. Ultimately, Buhari won, defeating the incumbent President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, a southerner.

From the first election that ushered in the Fourth Republic to date, presidential contests have never been restricted exclusively to candidates from either the North or the South. Strangely, throughout these election cycles, Senator Akume has never raised the alleged pact as an issue. He suddenly felt the need to remind Nigerians of it while addressing APC members at a rally in Lafia. If hypocrisy had a name, this would be it.

Senator Akume was also silent, or appeared to have forgotten, that Obasanjo served eight years in office, after which the North did not enjoy eight years of uninterrupted presidential tenure. Goodluck Jonathan, also from the South, served from 2010 to 2015, following Obasanjo’s eight years. Why should the argument about rotation suddenly become so urgent and be used to discourage northern aspirants from challenging Tinubu?

Those in power cannot suddenly rebrand a doubtful agreement as an unquestionable law. If an arrangement lacks clear terms, legitimate authority, and consistent enforcement, it is not a rule; it is a tool of convenience. Even the very idea of such a pact raises questions about fairness.

An agreement to rotate the presidency between the North and the South is entirely meaningless if the position repeatedly eludes the South East and the North Central. By trying to revive this flawed argument at the Lafia rally, the SGF exposed a glaring contradiction: the arrangement raises far more questions than it answers.

Endorsing Failure?

Shortly after the rally, it was announced that the North Central region had unanimously endorsed President Tinubu. An administration that has failed the fundamental test of governance, namely securing lives and property, does not merit endorsement. To endorse it is to reward mediocrity and to sanction ongoing abductions for ransom, relentless banditry, excruciating economic hardship, and the daily suffering of the Nigerian people.

I do not even want to talk about the Borno children who are still being held captive. I do not want to talk about the viral video showing kidnappers pointing a gun at a mother, father and baby abducted at Millennium City in Kaduna, with a reported ransom demand of N300 million. I do not want to talk about the killing of more than twenty traders, including some soldiers, in Zamfara by terrorists who attacked their vehicle while they were travelling with military security. It is scary.

Millions of Nigerians are trapped in a brutal cycle of hunger, unemployment, insecurity, and deep economic hardship. In the face of this widespread national suffering, the priority should be to vote for a candidate, regardless of the region he comes from, who would address the nation’s challenges. Dusting off a 1999 informal pact to insist that no northerner should contest the 2027 presidential election is certainly not the way to go.

It’s sad that while citizens clamour for immediate relief and governance, the political class remains obsessively focused on zoning power. The SGF should be more concerned with the administration’s record than with invoking a questionable power-sharing pact to exclude potential challengers. Who really cares about the Kaduna Pact?

Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway

Many Nigerians were alarmed when the federal government announced it was rerouting the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway. With millions trapped in multidimensional poverty and facing crippling economic hardship, the government’s decision to sink N15 trillion into a road project only to reroute it, despite a huge foreign debt, raises serious concerns. The government must be reminded that this rerouting suggests it failed to exercise due diligence before rushing to award the contract. Was there an environmental impact assessment and an approved engineering design? Perhaps we should ask again: what is the cost per kilometre?