Tinubu’s growth story runs into hunger crisis ahead of 2027 vote

…Economy expands at fastest pace in 5yrs

Nigeria’s economy grew 4.43 percent in the second quarter of 2026, its fastest second-quarter expansion in five years, giving President Bola Tinubu a stronger economic case to make ahead of the 2027 election, as foreign-exchange reserves rise and international rating agencies become more constructive about the country’s outlook. The figure was close to BusinessDay’s GDP forecast, which projected 4.5 percent ahead of the official release.

The 0.07 percentage-point difference gives the forecast a squared forecast error of just 0.0049. But the more important signal in the official data is what lies beneath the headline: non-oil growth accelerated alongside oil, agriculture strengthened, services remained dominant, while industry failed to sustain last year’s pace.

The Q2 performance extends the improvement in Nigeria’s second-quarter growth rate from 2.51 percent in 2023 to 3.19 percent in 2024, 4.23 percent in 2025 and now 4.43 percent. The latest increase also represents a stronger quarter-on-quarter pace than Q1 2026, when real GDP grew 3.89 percent.

Real GDP grew 4.43 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 percent a year earlier and 3.89 percent in the first quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The result adds to evidence that the economy is moving beyond the initial adjustment shock that followed Tinubu’s removal of the petrol subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign-exchange market in 2023.

Nigeria’s second-quarter economic data reveals a mixed sectoral performance, with services and agriculture driving momentum while the industrial sector significantly lags. Services maintained its position as the economic backbone, accelerating to 4.60 percent growth and accounting for 56.62 percent of the GDP, while agriculture showed an encouraging expansion of 4.39 percent. However, the industrial sector—which encompasses activities that are central to Nigeria’s productive capacity—floundered at a 3.96 percent growth rate, a steep decline from the 7.46 percent recorded a year earlier. This industrial weakness serves as a major warning sign, demonstrating that a durable economic expansion cannot rely indefinitely on services and agriculture without a robust, productive industrial base.

Read also: Nigeria’s economy sees fastest growth in five years

The data highlights a contrast between nominal and real economic expansion, with nominal GDP surging 18.43 percent to N119.29 trillion largely due to persistent inflation, compared to the 4.43 percent real growth rate. While a larger nominal economy benefits government revenue collection and fiscal ratios, it masks ongoing challenges with household purchasing power and high living costs. The improvement in headline GDP is encouraging, but a durable recovery will require more than a higher growth rate. It will require investment, productive capacity and employment to strengthen alongside output.

The significance of these numbers are political as much as economic. Tinubu has spent three years defending reforms that initially produced a painful combination of higher prices, a weaker naira and tighter financial conditions. The latest GDP figure allows the administration to make a different argument: that the disruption was part of a longer adjustment aimed at putting the economy on a more sustainable footing.

The improvement is visible beyond the GDP accounts. Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves reached about $53.2 billion on August 26, their highest level in nearly 18 years, according to Central Bank of Nigeria data. The increase has strengthened one of the country’s most important external buffers.

Credit-rating agencies are also becoming more constructive. Moody’s Ratings on August 28 revised Nigeria’s sovereign outlook to positive from stable while affirming its B3 rating, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger foreign-exchange reserves and greater resilience to external shocks. S&P Global Ratings had also upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating to B from B- in May, citing sustained structural reforms and improving creditworthiness.

Taken together, the indicators give Tinubu a stronger record to present to voters than he had during the most difficult phase of his presidency. Growth is accelerating, external buffers are larger and the country’s international credit assessment is becoming less negative. But the political value of those improvements will depend on whether voters feel them.

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The central weakness in the administration’s economic argument remains the gap between macroeconomic stabilisation and household welfare. Inflation has fallen substantially from its earlier peak, but prices remain high and borrowing costs continue to constrain consumers and businesses. Moody’s decision to retain Nigeria’s B3 rating also reflects persistent fiscal pressures, limited revenue-generating capacity and weak debt affordability.

That creates a more complicated political scorecard ahead of 2027. The government can point to stronger output, improved external buffers and greater confidence among international rating agencies. The opposition can argue that macroeconomic gains have yet to translate sufficiently into cheaper food, higher real incomes and better living standards.

Tinubu’s reform record is therefore entering a more demanding phase. The first phase was dominated by stabilisation and adjustment. The next must demonstrate that greater macroeconomic stability can translate into investment, jobs, productivity and stronger household incomes.

The Q2 figures strengthen that argument, but they do not settle it. Nigeria’s economy is expanding faster, yet the pace remains modest relative to the government’s longer-term ambition. More importantly, the composition of growth will matter as much as the headline. A recovery that produces stronger output without sufficient employment, investment and productivity gains will have limited political value.

The political environment is also becoming more complicated for the president. A US Freedom of Information Act case involving records relating to historical investigations concerning Tinubu remains ongoing. His legal team has challenged the disclosure of records held by US law-enforcement agencies, while the FBI has sought permission to submit some sensitive material to the court privately. Reports have referred to a 399-page set of records, but their contents have not been publicly established and should not be treated as evidence of wrongdoing.

Its political significance will depend on what, if anything, the records ultimately reveal and how the dispute develops through the courts. For now, the economic record gives Tinubu a stronger case for his reforms: growth is accelerating, external buffers are larger and international ratings agencies are becoming more constructive. But with the 2027 election approaching, the harder question is whether those gains will become visible in household incomes, jobs and living standards.

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