ADC Crisis: What becomes of Atiku, Mark, Gombe if Supreme Court decides party’s fate?

By Luminous Jannamike

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) was meant to be the meeting point of opposition forces determined to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027. Instead, the party has become the battleground for a struggle that could undo the coalition it was expected to accommodate.

Read Also: Court sacks Mark-led ADC exco, voids Atiku’s candidacy

Barely 24 hours after former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar took his presidential campaign to Sokoto, a Federal High Court judgment delivered by Justice Peter Lifu threw the party into fresh uncertainty, nullifying the David Mark-led leadership and decisions taken under it, including the process that produced Atiku as presidential candidate.

For Mark and his allies, it was a setback at a critical moment. For Nafiu Bala Gombe, who challenged the leadership transition, it was a victory in a battle he had refused to abandon. For Atiku, it was a reminder that the platform on which he hopes to return to Aso Rock may not be entirely within his control.

With the Mark faction preparing to appeal, attention is shifting to the appellate courts. Whatever the eventual outcome, the political fortunes of some of the coalition’s most prominent figures are at stake.

How it all began

The dispute began when former ADC National Chairman, Ralph Nwosu, facilitated a leadership transition that brought Mark and former Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, into the party as National Chairman and National Secretary respectively.

The arrangement offered opposition politicians an existing political structure around which to build a challenge to the APC. But Gombe, a former Deputy National Chairman, North, objected, arguing that the party’s constitution provided a succession procedure that was not followed.

His challenge produced Justice Lifu’s November 5 judgment.

The Mark faction, however, insists that the leadership question had already been examined by the court. It points to the July 2, 2026, judgment of Justice Musa Liman in a separate suit instituted by House of Representatives member Leke Abejide.

Justice Liman upheld preliminary objections, including lack of jurisdiction, standing and failure to exhaust internal party remedies. He also made findings favourable to the defendants concerning the leadership transition

The Mark camp argues that a court of coordinate jurisdiction cannot overturn another court’s decision. However, the different plaintiffs and the precise issues and reliefs sought in the two cases make the legal relationship between the judgments a matter requiring highest judicial determination.

The Supreme Court had intervened on April 30, setting aside an earlier status quo ante bellum order and directing an expedited hearing at the Federal High Court. It did not decide who was entitled to lead the ADC

While Mark’s camp rejects the latest judgment, Gombe has celebrated it as a victory for constitutional governance.

“Political parties are not above their own constitutions, and the Electoral Act is not a mere suggestion,” he declared.

If Gombe wins at S-Court, where does Atiku go?

A final Supreme Court victory for Gombe could leave Atiku facing a difficult political calculation.

If the court upholds the nullification of the Mark-led leadership and its consequential decisions, the former Vice-President’s presidential nomination could become legally untenable.

His political influence would remain, but finding another viable platform at this stage would be difficult. Atiku has made clear that he intends to fight the judgment.

“My roots are in Northern Nigeria, but my candidacy belongs to all Nigerians. There is a difference between being from the North and being a candidate only for the North,” he said in a statement by his campaign spokesman, Phrank Shaibu.

A Gombe victory at the apex court would also cost Mark and Aregbesola their positions and potentially undermine the machinery through which the coalition intends to contest the elections.

The consequences could extend to governorship, Senate, House of Representatives and State Assembly candidates whose nominations were made under the disputed leadership. Their electoral ambitions could be affected if the final orders invalidate those nominations.

For Gombe, however, winning the chairmanship would not automatically mean inheriting the coalition’s political networks, resources and prominent figures. He would have to decide whether to accommodate the politicians who joined under Mark or risk a party weakened by their departure.

Nwosu would equally face renewed questions about the leadership transition he facilitated, although a judgment against Mark’s structure would not automatically establish personal wrongdoing on his part.

If Mark wins at S-Court, Gombe faces another choice

A final victory for Mark would preserve the coalition’s leadership structure, strengthen the position of existing ADC candidates and remove the immediate legal threat to Atiku’s ticket.

Aregbesola would retain his position, while Atiku could concentrate on his campaign rather than spend valuable time defending his political platform. Rotimi Amaechi, his presidential running mate, and other candidates would also have greater certainty over their nominations.

Gombe, meanwhile, would have to decide whether to remain in the party, accept the coalition’s leadership or seek another political arrangement. His influence would depend on the support he retains among the ADC’s original membership.

But a Mark victory would not automatically end the internal struggle. The coalition brings together politicians with different ambitions and constituencies. Their common opposition to Tinubu does not mean they agree on the distribution of party offices, influence and political opportunities.

Mark would still have to demonstrate that the ADC can function as a political party rather than an alliance held together principally by the desire to challenge the APC.

The election clock is ticking

The electoral timetable makes the dispute particularly consequential. INEC has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for January 16, 2027, and governorship and State Assembly elections for February 6. The deadlines for party primaries and replacement of presidential candidates have passed.

Consequently, a Gombe victory would not automatically give the recognised leadership an opportunity to conduct fresh primaries and nominate new candidates.

Whether existing nominations survive would depend on the final appellate orders, their scope and the applicable electoral provisions.

For thousands of candidates, the dispute is no longer simply an argument between political heavyweights in Abuja. It is about whether their names will remain on the ballot after months of campaigning.

The ADC has accused the APC of exploiting the crisis to weaken the opposition. The ruling party has denied involvement, describing the matter as an internal ADC dispute. Those allegations remain contested.

Ultimately, the Supreme Court may determine who legally controls the ADC, but it cannot guarantee that the victorious faction will retain the loyalty of the coalition.

If Gombe wins, he could secure the party but struggle to retain the coalition. If Mark wins, he could preserve the coalition’s platform but still face the task of reconciling an aggrieved original membership. For Atiku, the immediate question is whether his presidential ambition can survive the loss of its chosen platform.

Vanguard News

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