Brace for heavy rains and flash floods

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) says heavy rainfall is expected in several parts of the country this month.

In its monthly forecast, KMSA says heavy rainfall is set to continue in the coastal and Northeastern region counties of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir Counties.

In the forecast KMSA Director Edward Muriuki is warning that, “the enhanced rainfall is likely to increase the probability of weather-related hazards such as flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides, and localized infrastructural damage,” he says in the forecast and adds, “Low-lying coastal zones, flood prone river basins, urban centres with poor drainage, and steep highland areas are particularly vulnerable.”

The forecast indicates that the Eastern region, the South-Eastern lowlands and the Central region counties of Nairobi, Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok Counties are set for above-average rainfall.

The weatherman says near-average to above-average rainfall is expected in the counties of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, West Pokot and parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia Counties during the month of October.

Muriuki is warning that increased stagnant water may create favourable breeding conditions for mosquitoes, potentially increasing the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria in susceptible areas. “Flooded or poorly drained settlements may also face higher risks of water-borne diseases where water quality and sanitation are compromised,” he warns.

The heavy rains may disrupt road transport through flooding, waterlogging, and erosion of roads and bridges. “Rural access roads are particularly vulnerable to becoming impassable after sustained rainfall, while urban areas may also experience traffic disruptions when drainage systems are overwhelmed.”

However, he notes that above-average rainfall is likely to increase river flows, replenish dams, water pans, and groundwater resources, and improve water availability for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use.

The KMSA Acting Director says in arid and semi-arid regions, the rains may contribute significantly to the recovery of water sources, but warns that heavy rainfall could increase runoff and cause localised flooding in some catchments, especially where drainage systems are inadequate.

The Weatherman says the above-average rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting activities, enhance pasture regeneration, and improve water availability for livestock. However, he notes that the enhanced rainfall in some areas may also lead to waterlogging, delayed farm operations, increased crop diseases and difficulties in transporting agricultural produce.

The onset and cessation dates provided by KMSA indicate that the lake basin and western rift valley counties of Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, TransNzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West-Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori and Narok, the rainfall began in September and is set to continue into January next year.

The coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and the Tana Delta already receiving rainfall will see the cessation in the second week of December.

Rainfall is set to begin this week in the north eastern counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, the cessation is set for the second week of December.

The South-Eastern lowland counties of Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River County as well as the Eastern Rift Valley counties of Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi, the onset of the rainfall is in the second week of October and will last into January next year.

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