Global PC shipments expected to decline by 27% YoY in Q4 2026

Global PC (Personal Computer) shipments are expected to decline by 27% year-on-year during the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating the continuation of the worst market crisis in history.

According to preliminary industry data from Counterpoint Research, seen by Technext, the negative trend is attributed to a market stabilisation expected to slow down, with memory chip shortages showing no sign of a rapid rejuvenation. The forecast shows the market remains “broadly flat” compared to what it experienced in 2025.

When the PC market begins to stabilise, this shouldn’t be mistaken for a recovery, according to the report. During the process, the combinations of AI PCs, premium displays and differentiated products are tipped to create new waves of opportunities; however, manufacturers that control the PC market will be those that combine innovation with competitive pricing, the ability to make precise supply and create value for consumers.

Aside from the PC market, the global device industry, including smartphones, is faced with a crisis originating from the continued diversion of memory chips to AI-enhanced facilities such as data centres and sophisticated models. Another is how the present position is influenced by continued inventory reduction and production repositioning by vendors.

IM: Cybernews

Also read: Global smartphone shipments register their worst quarter yet, but Sub-Saharan Africa will be hardest hit.

In his reaction to the continued crisis projection, Associate Director David Naranjo at Counterpoint Research noted that the global PC market is in a readjustment stage. As a result, manufacturers are in a dilemma stage of a balancing act between protecting margins and maintaining affordability, particularly as consumer demand continues to deteriorate.

“The PC industry is entering a period of structural adjustment, where rising component costs, higher system prices and longer replacement cycles are fundamentally reshaping market dynamics,” he said in the report.

While the shortage of chips makes PC production more costly, the crisis is more than the resulting surge in selling prices. As manufacturers try to incorporate new models and configurations that can absorb the inflation, the affordability status of the devices can make it more difficult for buyers, especially for price-sensitive consumers.

The consideration put more pressure on shipment volume, making manufacturers more cautious about increasing their inventory; this is the 27% YoY expected decline in Q4 ‘26.

Global PC Shipment: When all points to massive decline

Counterpoint Research reported that the market suffered a 21% YoY drop in Q3 2026 to 57 million units, largely attributed to memory prices and other component costs. In fact, shipments also fell by 13.8% quarter-on-quarter.

Laptop

This latest report corroborates earlier analysis, showing how the PC market suffered from one of its weakest quarters in recent years.

Data provided by IDC reported that global PC shipments fell by 20.1% YoY in Q3 ‘26 to 62.7 million units, compared to the 78.5 million units recorded a year ago. It noted that the Q3 shipment dip is the second consecutive decline and a deeper one than the 3.8% drop in Q2. Also, it’s one of the lowest Q3s in recent years, coming from a quarter known for a seasonal lift.

“The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as rising memory and component costs push system prices higher and force consumers to delay replacement purchases,” Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang at Counterpoint Research noted.

He noted that as affordability is becoming an increasingly critical purchasing factor, market leaders are struggling to maintain shipment momentum, with major manufacturers experiencing significant drops during the quarter.

Q3 ‘26 vs Q3 ‘25: How Lenovo, Apple, others performed

Lenovo still maintained its market leadership with shipments of 15 million units and a 26.3% market share, despite a 23% YoY decline. In second place is HP with shipments of 10.3 million units and an 18.1% share. With the shipments decline of 31% YoY, it saw the largest decline among the top six vendors.

Dell ranked third with shipments of 7.6 million units, a 25% YoY drop, and a 13.3% market share.

Apple outperformed the whole market by having the lowest shipment decline of 11% YoY to 5.6 million units, giving it a 9.8% market share, up from 8.7% a year earlier. Apple’s positive performance, compared to others, is attributed to its MacBook Neo.

Apple MacBook Neo (IM: Apple)

ASUS shipped 5.2 million units, down 7% YoY, but recorded the smallest annual decline among the top five vendors, increasing its market share to 9.2% from 7.8% a year earlier.

Overall, the five leading vendors accounted for 76.7% of global PC shipments. Other vendors shipped 13.3 million units, down 16% YoY.

Also read: 5G smartphone shipments jump 8% YoY across the Middle East and Africa in Q2 2026.