Sub-Saharan Africa records strong trade growth as globalisation reaches record level

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong trade value growth in 2026 despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and disruption to major trade routes.

The value of the region’s trade rose 11% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, placing it behind only East Asia and the Pacific, at 24%, and Europe, at 12%. This follows a year in which the region achieved the world’s fastest trade value growth during the first six months of 2025.

These findings form part of the latest edition of the DHL Globalisation Tracker, based on more than 30-million data points, analysing international flows of trade, capital, information, and people.

AI buildout boosts global trade

The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound.

A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.

“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs,” says John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited

At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes. But the effects remained concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade policy created a separate headwind.

US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026.

Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

Trade outlook upgraded despite recent shocks

Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3,4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2,7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” says Professor Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern’s Centre for the Future of Management. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognise the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient.

“The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries,” Prof Altman adds. “It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”

Sub-Saharan Africa records strong trade growth

Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.

“The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges,” says Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa. “What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption.

“That’s a strong signal of the resilience of African businesses and the growing connections between African markets and the rest of the world,” he says. “The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets.”

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.

Sharp US–China decoupling, but no global split

One of the most significant changes in international flows is the weakening of US–China ties. Yet the global impact remains surprisingly small.

For example, trade between the US and China accounted for 3,5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1,6% during the first five months of 2026.

The US–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close US allies have largely maintained their relationships with China. These findings challenge the idea that US–China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.

A closer look also shows that direct trade figures understate US reliance on China. Goods imported into the US from other countries contain growing amounts of Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are also taken into account, US reliance on China has declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year for which data are available.

Globalisation reaches a new record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader development of globalisation based on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact).

In 2025, globalisation reached a record level of 25,8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment.

All four flow categories contributed to the new record, reaching higher levels of internationalisation. Information flows remain the most globalised, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalised.

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