Egypt’s annual urban inflation slows to 13.9% in September 2026: CBE

Annual urban headline inflation decelerated to 13.9% in September 2026, down from 14.5% in August, according to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

The decline was mainly driven by a softening in annual non-food inflation, which eased to 18% in September from 19.5% in August, coupled with a favourable base effect.

Meanwhile, annual food inflation edged up to 7.2% in September 2026 from 6.3% in the previous month.

Monthly urban headline inflation stood at 1.3% in September 2026, compared with 1.8% in September 2025 and 0.1% in August 2026, as easing non-food inflation partially offset an increase in food prices.

Specifically, monthly food inflation rose to 2.8% in September 2026 from -1.1% in August 2026, as both volatile and core food prices increased following three consecutive months of decline.

Meanwhile, monthly non-food inflation eased to 0.5% in September 2026 from 0.7% in August 2026.

Annual core inflation eased to 14.1% in September 2026 from 14.9% in August, reflecting favourable base effects and a softening in non-food inflation, which offset the mild uptick in core food inflation. Meanwhile, monthly core inflation stood at 0.8% in September 2026, compared with 1.5% in September 2025 and 0.3% in August 2026.

Annual rural headline inflation increased to 11.6% in September 2026 from 10.9% in August. Meanwhile, annual nationwide headline inflation — a weighted average of the urban and rural CPI baskets — remained broadly stable at 12.8% in September 2026, compared with 12.7% in August.

Key Drivers of Monthly Inflation in September 2026

Monthly food inflation stood at 2.8%, contributing 0.99 percentage points (p.p.) to monthly headline inflation. This was primarily driven by the following:

Volatile food inflation rose to 11.3%, contributing 0.69 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This primarily reflected a 17.8% increase in fresh vegetable prices, which contributed 0.64 p.p. to monthly headline inflation.

At the same time, fresh fruit prices increased by 1.9%, contributing 0.05 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. While both developments were in line with their typical seasonal patterns, they exhibited more pronounced dynamics.

Core food prices increased by 1.1%, contributing 0.30 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This increase was stronger than its typical seasonal pattern, reflecting higher prices in the poultry and fish and seafood groups, which rose by 4.9% and 1.5%, respectively, contributing 0.19 p.p. and 0.04 p.p., respectively, to monthly headline inflation.

Monthly non-food inflation stood at 0.5% in September 2026, contributing 0.30 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This was mainly driven by the following:

Services inflation increased by 0.5%, contributing 0.16 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This primarily reflected higher rents, driven by the continued spillover effects of the previous adjustment to the Old Rent Law, as well as higher prices for outpatient services.

Retail inflation increased by a mild 0.9%, contributing 0.12 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This was mainly driven by higher prices for household cleaning products, personal care products, and school supplies.

Regulated items inflation registered 0.1%, contributing 0.02 p.p. to monthly headline inflation, due to a 2.3% increase in public hospital service prices.

Monthly core inflation stood at 0.8%, reflecting the impact of the aforementioned developments. Specifically, core food items, services, and retail items contributed 0.42 p.p., 0.22 p.p., and 0.17 p.p. to monthly core inflation, respectively.

Key Drivers of Annual Inflation in September 2026

Annual food inflation rose to 7.2% in September 2026 from 6.3% in August, contributing 2.73 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This reflected the following:

Core food inflation increased to 5.2% in September 2026 from 4.4% in August, contributing 1.52 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This uptick was driven by higher prices for red meat, oils and fats, and poultry, which increased by 9%, 6.8%, and 4.2%, respectively. This was partially offset by a 19.6% decline in egg prices.

Volatile food inflation edged up to 18.9% in September 2026 from 18.6% in August, contributing 1.21 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This reflected a 31.7% increase in fresh vegetable inflation, partially offset by a moderation in fresh fruit inflation, which slowed to 2.2%.

Annual non-food inflation declined to 18% in September 2026 from 19.5% in August, contributing 11.22 p.p. to annual headline inflation and reaching its lowest rate since January 2023. This decline was driven by the following:

Services inflation fell to 24.4% in September 2026 from 27.8% in August, contributing 6.81 p.p. to annual headline inflation.

This development reflected broadly stable inflation across most services categories, alongside an easing in rent inflation.

Regulated items inflation slightly declined to 12% in September 2026 from 12.3% in August, contributing 2.62 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This slight decline reflected relatively stable prices of regulated items, given the absence of new fiscal consolidation measures.

Retail inflation remained broadly stable at 12.2% in September 2026, compared with 12.1% in August, contributing 1.79 p.p. to annual headline inflation and reflecting relatively stable retail prices.

Annual core inflation eased to 14.1% in September 2026 from 14.9% in August, reflecting the dynamics of the aforementioned items. In particular, services, retail, and core food items contributed 9.47 p.p., 2.49 p.p., and 2.12 p.p. to annual core inflation, respectively.