Atiku’s ADC Court Setback: 5 Ways Obi Could Benefit Ahead of 2027

A Federal High Court judgment invalidating Atiku Abubakar’s emergence as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate has introduced fresh uncertainty into Nigeria’s 2027 election, while raising questions about whether Peter Obi could benefit from the former vice-president’s legal predicament.

The ruling, delivered on Thursday by Justice Peter Lifu, nullified the leadership of the ADC led by former Senate President David Mark and decisions taken under it, including the presidential primary that produced Atiku as the party’s flagbearer.

The judgment also affected other candidates nominated by the party, although the ADC has indicated plans to appeal.

With the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, the development could force opposition leaders to reconsider their political calculations, particularly after months of failed efforts to unite behind a common candidate.

Atiku and Obi were initially part of the opposition coalition that adopted the ADC as its political platform, but their paths diverged when Obi secured the presidential ticket of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, while Atiku emerged as the ADC candidate.

Atiku selected former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, as his running mate, while Obi chose former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leaving the opposition divided in its challenge to President Bola Tinubu.

Here are five possible ways the court decision could reshape Obi’s political prospects.

1. Atiku “could” transfer political support to Obi

Should Atiku exhaust his legal options without securing the restoration of his candidacy, one possibility is that he could endorse Obi as an alternative opposition candidate.

The two politicians previously worked together during the 2019 presidential election, when Obi served as Atiku’s running mate on the Peoples Democratic Party platform, securing a combined 11.3 million votes despite losing to former President Muhammadu Buhari.

Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar

Their separation ahead of the 2023 election saw them contest independently, with Tinubu polling 8,794,726 votes, Atiku receiving 6,984,520 and Obi recording 6,101,533, while Kwankwaso secured 1,496,687 votes.

Although the combined figures for Atiku and Obi exceeded Tinubu’s total, an alliance in 2027 would not automatically reproduce the same voting pattern because electoral support depends on several factors beyond previous results.

2. Obi could gain access to Atiku’s northern political networks

An endorsement from Atiku could give Obi an opportunity to strengthen his presence in parts of northern Nigeria where the former vice-president has built considerable political influence.

Obi performed strongly in the South-East in 2023 and also won Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory and several other states, while Atiku maintained significant support in the North-East and North-West.

2018 PDP presidential rally in Ibadan at a South West State

Bringing their political constituencies together could create a broader electoral coalition, although Atiku’s supporters may not necessarily transfer their loyalty to Obi in full.

Some could support another candidate, remain with Atiku regardless of his decision or stay away from the election, making grassroots mobilisation essential to any proposed alliance.

3. Kwankwaso’s influence could strengthen or complicate the arrangement

Obi’s existing partnership with Kwankwaso could provide another dimension to negotiations, given the former Kano governor’s political influence and the support recorded by his New Nigeria Peoples Party in 2023.

Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku

A possible understanding involving Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi could bring together influential political networks from different parts of the country.

However, reconciling the interests of the three politicians would require negotiations over political influence, party structures and future ambitions rather than a simple public endorsement.

4. Obi’s single-term pledge could attract northern support

Obi’s declaration that he would serve only one four-year term if elected could become an important consideration in discussions with northern political leaders.

Kwankwaso has said that agreements were signed concerning the proposed arrangement, while the NDC has reportedly zoned its presidential ticket to the North for 2031.

Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, pledging to serve one term if elected.

Such an understanding could appeal to northern politicians who favour a return of presidential power to their region after 2027.

However, Obi would remain constitutionally eligible to seek another term, meaning the pledge is a political commitment rather than a legally enforceable restriction.

5. The judgment could influence public sympathy and opposition strategy

The ruling could also shape how voters perceive the opposition and the broader electoral process, particularly if supporters interpret Atiku’s legal setback as an attempt to weaken political competition.

There is, however, no established evidence that Tinubu or the All Progressives Congress instigated the court action, which arose from an internal dispute over the ADC’s leadership.

An illustrative visual of political unity as Atiku Abubakar backs Peter Obi ahead of the elections | Credit: Gemini A1

While some voters could become sympathetic to the affected opposition camp, others may view the decision strictly as a consequence of the party’s internal disagreements.

The judgment has also disrupted the nominations of other ADC candidates, potentially affecting the party’s legislative campaigns and grassroots structures.

The appeal remains a major factor

Atiku has not exhausted his legal options, and the ADC’s planned appeal means the possibility of his return to the presidential race remains open.

Any move towards an alliance with Obi would also require political negotiations, particularly because the candidates already belong to different parties and have selected separate running mates.

For now, the judgment has created an opportunity for renewed opposition discussions but has not resolved the divisions that previously prevented a common presidential platform.

Whether Obi can turn Atiku’s legal setback into an electoral advantage will depend on the outcome of the appeal, the willingness of political leaders to cooperate and the ability of their supporters to rally behind a shared candidate.

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