2027: Let us end this presidential campaign charade

By SUNNY IKHIOYA

It is not a matter of whether you love President Bola Tinubu or not. It is a question of the way forward for Nigeria. We are taught to believe that politics is a contest of ideas. The side that convinces the people that it has the best way forward wins. This is because there is no unidirectional path to governance. As economists would put it, there is always “the other hand.” That is why a strong opposition is a sine qua non in every political system, no matter the ideology in place. The government of President Goodluck Jonathan exemplified this by giving opposition parties the freedom to express themselves in any manner they chose. They called him all kinds of names and even went to the extent of carrying a coffin to signify his death. But all Jonathan said was, “No blood must be shed on my behalf.” That was real democracy at work: freedom of speech, movement and association. But all of this became an illusion immediately after a very vibrant opposition took over government. It is becoming clear that those who rode to power on the crest of populism ended up becoming dictators once they assumed power. We saw it with Kabila of the DRC. We have seen it with Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. And we are seeing it with the APC government in Nigeria. What do they have in common? Intolerance of opposition.

But the opposition in Nigeria has also shot itself in the foot in the manner in which it is challenging for the ultimate political prize: the presidency. It has become so desperate that it has thrown all caution to the wind. It is concentrating on destroying the person of President Bola Tinubu instead of providing intelligent and winnable strategies to unseat the government. And I believe this will not lead it anywhere. The 2027 presidential election, at this rate, is as good as done and dusted. The opposition will not like to hear this, but it is the truth. Its capacity has been seriously degraded by its pursuit of inanities.

It is going after Tinubu’s Chicago certificate, an issue that has been in the Nigerian public space since Gani Fawehinmi took him to court on October 7, 1999. That was 27 years ago. Since then, the man went on to serve two terms as governor and performed creditably. He also became the arrowhead of Lagos State politics and rallied a national coalition to defeat an incumbent president in the 2015 elections. All this while, those bent on destroying him now were his close friends and confidants. He used his platform — the Action Congress — to support Atiku in his failed 2007 election bid. This man was the acclaimed leader of the APC even when he was not in government, and nobody questioned his competence and qualifications then.

He became president despite serious opposition from within and outside his party, with the Chicago certificate scandal at the forefront of the campaign. The matter even went as far as the Supreme Court to determine his eligibility, and he won. In a country where the court has ruled that you do not need a school certificate to become president, dragging a certificate matter for eternity smacks of extreme jealousy and wickedness. What you could not do while the man was not even in government, you now want to do.

Someone said, “Tinubu is not Jonathan,” and I agree. Tinubu is not unbeatable if the right strategies are adopted. But are we using the right strategies? Is it right to over-rely on a strategy that has been in the public space since 1999, when Gani took him to court over the Chicago certificate matter? Have we factored in our cultural and religious dynamics to conclude that these strategies will work? Have fellow Nigerians suffered enough to collectively decide that the suffering must be put to an end? Have the masses been educated and enlightened enough to discern when they are being taken for a ride? Are our opposition politicians patriotic enough to put their personal ambitions aside and unite behind a credible and widely accepted candidate?

These are the issues. We have seen this happen all over the world. In Nigeria, those in power are winning the propaganda battle, and this is being reinforced by religious and ethnic intolerance.

After 66 years of independence, an individual can come out openly to call other people “infidels” because they do not belong to his religion, and the state will not call him to order. There are many like that across the nation, operating under the cover of religion and ethnicity, with no consequences from the state. And you expect the people to rise up for justice under this condition? How many of these people have electricity to watch critics like Rufai Oseni on television? How many can afford to buy newspapers and analyse the conditions we are presently facing? So, all the big talk and social media posts will not change anything. Even if we decide to start the campaign now, it is already too late. There is no way you can defeat President Tinubu in the next election. Our opposition politicians are not serious. They are just noise-makers. The only way we can change our situation is for civil society groups to change their strategies and adopt the style of the late Gani Fawehinmi: observe critically the activities of those in government, advocate forcefully against constitutional breaches, and take them to court.

We must be consistent and resilient in doing this, with vibrant unions like ASUU and other NLC affiliates. For those waiting for a miracle, you will wait in vain. Nothing will change if strong actions are not taken. Our politicians and representatives have failed us. Even in the face of strong military dictatorship, Nigerian civil society stood its ground. People like Sowore should go back to their original calling: vibrant civil rights opposition. They should forget this dream of contesting elections to become president. It will not work. The question that baffles some of us is this: Is it morally right to knowingly associate with a “crook” when it benefits you, and later turn around to point accusing fingers at him when you are on opposite sides? When you wanted Tinubu’s support, you never said he was a crook. You never shouted about his certificate. You made him your leader because you knew that through him, your party could win elections. If you knew he was a crook, why associate with him?

Arguably, the only person in that setup who has not been an ally of Tinubu all this while is Peter Obi, whom many elites now prefer as their candidate. But in politics, the good guys don’t always win. We must let this lesson sink in. So, what is to be done? We must embark on massive sensitisation of the people through vibrant NGOs, civil rights groups, students, ethnic unions, religious organisations and others. Everyone must stand as a monitor of government and political activities and apply the necessary pressure to curtail excesses. No government can withstand massive people’s protests if they are carried out with sincere resolve.

As for our opposition politicians, forget about them. They are not ready.

•Ikhioya writes from Lagos.

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