Can China’s zero-tariff policy boost Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector and rural industrialisation?

After more than two decades of collapse, can China’s zero-tariff policy inject new momentum towards agricultural renewal and rural industrialisation in Zimbabwe? Zimbabwe’s core agricultural roadmap, Agriculture, Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy 2 (AFSRTS 2), which spans 2026–2030, aims to grow the sector from a prior milestone of roughly US$10,3 billion to a US$15,8 billion economy by leveraging new technologies and access to international markets, targeting a 70% increase in horticulture and US$1,6 billion in agricultural exports.

It also seeks to accelerate agricultural modernisation, expanding irrigation infrastructure, mechanisation, and climate-smart farming. Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 2 prioritises export diversification, trade and investment facilitation as key drivers of structural transformation to boost rural modernisation and industrialisation.

Agriculture and mining remain the core bedrock of the Zimbabwean economy, supporting about 60% to 70% of the population and supplying about 60% of raw materials for local industries. The combined sectors provide jobs and livelihoods for the vast majority of rural, peri-urban and urban-based families. They are also deeply integrated into domestic manufacturing, with commodities such as cotton, sugar, grains, tobacco and citrus, alongside a wide range of minerals, feeding industry, domestic consumption and international trade.

Beyond mining, agriculture remains one of Zimbabwe’s major foreign currency earners, generating export revenue from tobacco, citrus, nuts, fruits and other high-value crops.

The agriculture sector, Zimbabwe’s prime economic driver, collapsed following the fast-track land reform process, which culminated in the sudden redistribution of predominantly White-owned large-scale commercial farms to address historical racially skewed land ownership in the country. While the fast-track land reform disrupted domestic land ownership and production at home, the reactive punitive closure of Western international markets to products from Zimbabwe created a long-term challenge, which has bedevilled agricultural and industrial revival.

According to the China Africa Business Council, Zimbabwe is the single largest direct beneficiary of the zero-tariff regime among Sadc nations. The catalyst is raw tobacco, which historically attracted a 10% applied MFN duty and accounts for an estimated 33–40% of Zimbabwe’s total exports to China. As the world’s fifth-largest tobacco production base, Zimbabwe exports to China at values of US$653 million–US$ 788 million annually.

ZimTrade, the country’s trade promotion agency, says that China’s zero-tariff policy is set to promote rural industrialisation and job creation by boosting horticultural exports from smallholder farmers, while expanding China-Africa trade, regional and international commerce. Provinces like Manicaland, which produces products such as citrus, macadamia nuts, and avocados, can now access Chinese consumers with unprecedented ease and cost-effectiveness, providing the country with a sustainable and competitive edge.

Zimbabwe’s agricultural and horticultural sectors, which include citrus, tobacco, and blueberries, are poised for strong export growth under the zero-tariff policy. The removal of tariffs creates an immediate, material price advantage in a market where Zimbabwe already dominates agricultural purchases within the sub-region. Beyond tobacco, horticulture, specifically citrus and macadamia, faces additional tariff removal of up to 11–30%, unlocking further growth following the 48% year-on-year increase already recorded in 2024.

The policy significantly boosts qualifying agricultural exports by removing import duties and lowering market entry costs by about 17%. It covers nearly all physical goods from eligible African countries, removing previous import taxes that ranged up to 30% on items like agricultural products, manufactured goods, and minerals, while certain products remain subject to tariff-rate quotas. Beneficiary countries are required to establish the legal and operational framework for issuing rules of origin certificates retrospectively from the May 1 start date.

Zimbabwean tobacco and blueberries were amongst the early shipments under the zero-tariff policy, alongside apples from South Africa, and avocado oil from Kenya. A wide range of products, including agricultural commodities, processed foods, horticultural products, textiles, leather goods, industrial inputs and selected manufactured products, are set to benefit from duty-free access into the Chinese market.

The zero-tariff policy allows African businesses and countries to lower landed export costs in China and reduce reliance on traditional Western trading partners like the USA, which has imposed coercive trade tariffs on most of its trading partners. In addition to tariff exemptions, greater use of renminbi (RMB) settlement mechanisms helps reduce transaction costs across the trade corridor. For decades, the Zimbabwean agriculture sector and the whole economy were strangled by persistent shortages of foreign currency, especially the US dollar, partly due to Western sanctions imposed on the country since 2000.

The initiative marks one of the most significant trade policy changes in recent China-Africa relations, expanding preferential access into a near continent-wide framework eliminating tariffs on imports from 53 African countries with diplomatic ties with Beijing. With a population of 1,4 billion people, China, the second-largest global economy, is one of the world’s largest consumer markets.

Beyond boosting exports, the tariff-free policy is expected to support Zimbabwe and Africa’s broader industrialisation ambitions. By encouraging value-added production, African economies may move up global value chains rather than relying solely on raw commodity exports. This aligns with Zimbabwe’s own policy direction. The government recently took steps to restrict the export of raw minerals, including lithium, in a bid to promote domestic processing and maximise economic returns.

The continent-wide policy operates as a temporary two-year arrangement under an “Early Harvest Lite” framework until April 2028. Exporters must still comply with strict Chinese sanitary, phytosanitary, packaging, and labelling standards, in line with export best practices to clear customs successfully. The Zimbabwe Horticultural Development Council, which represents the country’s horticultural exporters, said it is working to secure trade protocols with China for commodities with high export potential.

ZimTrade, the national trade promotion organisation, launched a practical guide to help exporters navigate and meet Chinese market requirements, including origin certification, market intelligence and buyer linkages. The guide outlines applicable rules of origin for exported products, as well as compliance with China’s sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, product standards and customs procedures. It also highlights the need to strengthen logistics systems to ensure goods can be moved into the Chinese market reliably and cost-effectively, while encouraging exporters to move beyond raw commodities toward value-added products that capture a larger share of the value chain.

The evolving trade landscape reflects a broader and deepening bilateral relationship between China and Zimbabwe. Chinese investment continues to play a key role in Zimbabwe’s mining and energy sectors, particularly in lithium, a critical resource for the global clean energy transition. China has long been one of Zimbabwe’s largest trading partners and investors, with cooperation spanning infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and energy. Major projects include power stations, airport expansions, and mining ventures, many of which are backed by Chinese financing and technical expertise.

The zero-tariff policy provides opportunities to boost agriculture, promote rural industrialisation, and diversify and deepen trade relations. Building enhanced export capacity, promoting utilisation of new technologies, and addressing economic structural challenges could ensure broader agricultural and industrial transformation.

Gideon H Chitanga, is a political and international relations analyst.

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