Inside the Trump campaign strategy to reverse Republicans’ dwindling hopes of winning the midterms

The midterms mood among Donald Trump’s inner circle has soured as GOP candidates openly break with the president and his approval ratings hit an all-time low, prompting a largely unspoken but age-old question: How does an unpopular president best help his party keep control of Congress?

Trump advisers have privately acknowledged that there’s little expectation he can win over large numbers of independents and swing voters, which was part of his path to victory in critical states in 2024. And while they’re more concerned about losing control of the House, Republicans’ previous confidence that they can hold onto the Senate is dwindling by the day.

“It’s obviously going to be f***ing rough,” one Trump adviser told CNN, adding that they believe the best-case scenario is achieving what Democrats did in 2022, when under former President Joe Biden they narrowly lost control of the House but kept the Senate.

Still, Trump’s team is planning an aggressive campaign schedule for Trump and Vice President JD Vance in October in both battleground and deep-red states alike, multiple officials told CNN — as advisers believe their only hope at holding ground is increasing turnout, and the president can help with that.

“The system is built around what areas we need to goose turnout 2-3 points,” one operative told CNN.

In recent weeks, Trump’s senior advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, put together a calendar that has Trump on the campaign trail for most days in October, though two administration officials said that not all stops had been confirmed. He is planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma next week, but a GOP official said those were “outliers” in the travel strategy, which would focus more on battleground districts.

“He’ll be playing hard in Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio — he’ll be on the road just about every day in October campaigning. We’re leaving it all on the table,” the official added. However, even in more purple states, the plan is for Trump to go to more conservative areas, according to another official.

Advisers also hope the Trump-Vance campaigning will help raise money as Republican groups — including Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC — have begun hemorrhaging cash across the country. This week, the Senate Leadership Fund increased its spending in Texas to $100 million to support GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton in a state they haven’t lost in decades, exposing the party’s fresh worries about the Senate.

And while one Republican operative said that the enormous sum was moving the needle in their direction “some,” it wasn’t clear it would be enough to reverse the strong political headwinds largely created by the president himself.

Asked if there was anything Republicans could do to change the tide, the operative replied: “Go back in time and never start the war with Iran.”

Running away from Trump

Republicans in both purple territories and even some red districts have broken from Trump on issues ranging from the Iran War to the economy to immigration. Republican Mike Rogers, the Michigan Senate candidate in one of the most closely watched races this cycle, lamented in a recent ad that “Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down.”

“The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly,” Rogers said. “When it does, energy costs will plummet, but Michigan families can’t afford to wait for that to happen.”

That sentiment was echoed by the GOP’s Senate candidates in Iowa and Ohio. Other Republican lawmakers have voted to limit Trump’s war powers. House lawmakers in Florida and Texas have also criticized the administration on immigration. Several others have removed Trump references from campaign websites.

The GOP official involved in strategy brushed off concerns about candidates distancing from the president, saying “they need to run the races they need to run, and we’re obviously encouraging them to do what they need to do.”

In a sign of how potentially polarizing the president and his MAGA brand are right now, much of the money being spent by Trump’s PAC is coming through two newly formed groups with far less politically aligned names: No Going Back PAC Inc. and Safety & Affordability PAC Inc.

However, Trump’s political team still believes that his ability to drive turnout is one of Republicans’ greatest assets come November. While some Republicans have quietly expressed concerns about candidates in sensitive races appearing alongside Trump, one official brushed off the notion.

“The cake is already baked. There’s no getting away from Trump for these guys. So we have to lean into it,” the official said. “The left is going to attack [Republican candidates] as being close to Trump no matter what, so why not get the benefit out of it, which is max turnout.”

Trump’s midterms catch-22

Multiple sources working on midterm strategy told CNN that Trump’s political operation was working off that central belief — that they could still win with enough turnout. In order to minimize the percent of “persuadable” voters that are needed, their thinking goes, it’s critical to get as many base voters to the polls as possible.

“It’s all a turnout game,” a GOP campaign official said. “From day one, the campaign committees and the president’s political operation have been sharing data to make sure we’re hammering the exact people we need to turn out.”

A voter cast a ballot on the first day of early voting in Minnesota on September 18 in Minneapolis.

Ellen Schmidt/AP

Sources noted that while this was not the traditional way to look at a midterm when a president’s approval ratings are so low, Trump has always been a different political animal who defies typical expectations.

But his advisers also privately acknowledge a major problem with that strategy: Trump isn’t just an incredible driver of enthusiasm for his own supporters; he’s also a strong driver of Democratic turnout.

“The issue with putting his name on the ballot is it could ultimately serve as a bigger driving force for Democratic voters who hate him,” the campaign official said.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that Trump has “built one of the most robust coalitions in political history” and “the President understands how to communicate with them.”

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” Ingle added.

Deploying Vance

The White House and the president’s political apparatus view Vance as a crucial surrogate, and one that tends to stay far more on message compared to the president. But the campaign doesn’t exactly view him as an ace card to deploy in truly competitive territories — he’s still viewed as an extension of Trump. Both men are seen as potentially doing more damage than good in certain swing districts, sources familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

The decision of where and when to send both men is driven directly by the massive data operation that the president’s political team has amassed, one that was fortified during Trump’s 2024 campaign and is now also being used by the Republican National Committee and the GOP’s House and Senate campaign arms. James Blair, who left the White House to take charge of the political operation ahead of the midterms, has been weighing in on the calendars.

Vance, who has met directly with GOP lawmakers and candidates on the ballot in November to help them workshop messaging, has also been tasked with raising so-called “hard money” for the Republican National Committee.

“JD’s primary responsibility has been fundraising,” one source told CNN, nodding to Vance’s role as the RNC’s finance chair. The source described that as an urgent necessity, particularly given the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this month allowing political party committees, like the RNC, to get discounted television ad rates ahead of the midterm elections.

Vance isn’t the only surrogate the White House has deployed — senior staffers have also worked directly with Wiles to pick campaign stops and priorities for members of Trump’s Cabinet. In fact, Trump’s political team has tracked and ranked Cabinet officials’ campaign involvement, with higher points for traveling to swing districts and subtractions for overseas trips.

The rankings have been shared with officials in group settings in hopes it would incentivize more campaign involvement, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. During a summer meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington, Blair credited Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler as leading the pack, with Acting Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling in second, sources present at the meeting said.

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