Hassan Sheikh’s Failure to Hold the Country Together Raises Fears of an Al-Shabaab Advance on Mogadishu

Mogadishu (WDN) – Somalia has once again found itself among the countries the United States considers too dangerous for its citizens to visit. Washington has maintained the country at Level 4, the highest category in its travel advisory system, effectively telling Americans: Do Not Travel.

The warning is more than a routine security precaution. It is a damning reflection of the deterioration of Somalia’s security environment and raises serious questions about President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s ability to hold the country together after years of international support, military assistance and promises of national reconstruction.

Somalia now shares the highest US travel-risk classification with countries including Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen. The State Department cites terrorism, kidnapping, violent crime, political unrest, health risks and the limited ability of the American government to provide emergency assistance to its citizens inside Somalia.

The warning is particularly significant because it comes at a time when Somalia is experiencing an increasingly dangerous combination of political fragmentation, weakening state institutions and renewed pressure from Al-Shabaab.

A country increasingly divided against itself

President Hassan Sheikh came to power promising to defeat Al-Shabaab, strengthen federal institutions and restore national unity. Yet, rather than consolidating the country’s fragile federal system, his administration has presided over an increasingly bitter political confrontation with federal member states and opposition leaders.

Relations between Mogadishu and Puntland and Jubaland have deteriorated, while South West State is engulfed in political confrontation and Hirshabelle faces growing instability. The absence of a nationally agreed electoral framework has further deepened mistrust between the federal government and its political opponents.

The president’s pursuit of constitutional amendments without broad political consensus, alongside efforts to establish an electoral process contested by major political stakeholders, has weakened the foundations of national cooperation.

A federal government that cannot command the confidence of its constituent states, unite its political leadership or establish agreement on the rules governing the transfer of power is unlikely to mount an effective national security response.

The consequences extend far beyond political disagreements. Somalia’s security depends on cooperation among federal institutions, regional administrations, local communities and international partners. When these relationships deteriorate, the gaps are precisely what Al-Shabaab seeks to exploit.

Al-Shabaab is exploiting the vacuum

The greatest danger arising from Somalia’s political disintegration is the opportunity it creates for Al-Shabaab to expand its influence and military operations.

The militant group has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to exploit weak governance, local grievances, divided security forces and the absence of effective state authority. Its territorial gains in parts of central Somalia, particularly in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, have illustrated the consequences of an inconsistent security strategy.

A June 2026 assessment by the European Union Agency for Asylum documented Al-Shabaab’s recovery of several strategically important towns, including Mahas, Mokoqori, Adan Yabal, Nur Dugle, El Baraf and Hawadley. The assessment also described Somalia’s political and territorial situation as deeply fragmented

The danger is no longer confined to remote rural districts. Mogadishu remains vulnerable to sophisticated attacks, infiltration and targeted operations. Al-Shabaab has maintained the capacity to strike military installations, government institutions and heavily guarded locations in the capital.

The prospect of the group exploiting the country’s political and military divisions to intensify its pressure on Mogadishu should therefore be taken seriously. Although an outright takeover of the capital is not an established or inevitable outcome, the erosion of national cohesion makes such a strategic threat more difficult to contain.

The national army cannot compensate for political failure

Somalia’s security forces have paid a heavy price in the campaign against Al-Shabaab. Yet military strength cannot be sustained through international assistance alone, particularly when the political leadership responsible for coordinating national security is increasingly isolated.

The government has struggled to translate military assistance and international investment into a sustainable security architecture. The transition to Somali-led security responsibility remains heavily dependent on external funding, logistical support and foreign military deployments.

At the same time, allegations that government security forces have been deployed in politically motivated operations against civilians and political opponents have raised concerns about the neutrality and professionalism of national institutions.

An army must defend the country, not become an instrument of political survival. Its legitimacy depends on public confidence, discipline and a clear constitutional mandate.

The danger is that while the government concentrates political energy on electoral disputes and retaining power, Al-Shabaab continues to exploit the resulting security vacuum.

Washington’s warning should be a wake-up call

The US travel advisory is not an isolated diplomatic development. Other Western governments have also maintained severe travel restrictions for Somalia. Australia continues to advise against all travel, while Britain advises against travel to most parts of the country.

The United States also acknowledges that its ability to provide emergency assistance to Americans inside Somalia is severely limited because of the security environment. This is an important indication of the operational constraints facing even a major international partner.

For a country that has received decades of international military, financial and diplomatic assistance, the situation raises an uncomfortable question: how has Somalia reached this point despite such an extraordinary level of external engagement?

The answer cannot be attributed solely to Al-Shabaab. Political leadership, institutional accountability, federal cooperation and the ability to build a credible national security system are equally important.

President Hassan Sheikh cannot continue to present himself as the guarantor of national stability while presiding over a political order increasingly characterised by confrontation, institutional mistrust and fragmented authority.

A dangerous moment for Somalia

The immediate challenge is not simply to respond to Washington’s travel warning but to confront the deeper national crisis behind it.

Somalia needs a political settlement that brings federal member states and opposition leaders back into a functioning national framework. It needs an agreed constitutional and electoral process, security institutions insulated from partisan politics and a coherent military strategy against Al-Shabaab.

Without these changes, the country risks entering another period in which political fragmentation and military setbacks reinforce one another.

The greatest danger is that Al-Shabaab may not need to defeat a united Somali state to achieve its strategic objectives. It may only need to wait for the country’s political institutions, federal arrangements and security forces to become sufficiently divided.

For Mogadishu, the warning signs are unmistakable. The question is whether President Hassan Sheikh will recognise the gravity of the situation and change course before the consequences become irreversible.

A president’s greatest responsibility is not to secure his political future or prolong his administration. It is to preserve the country, protect its people and leave behind institutions stronger than those he inherited.

By that measure, Hassan Sheikh’s record faces an increasingly serious test. Somalia cannot afford a leadership failure that turns political fragmentation into a national security catastrophe.

WardheerNews

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