While the US and Iran have launched strikes against each other for the first time in a month, it is doubtful that this will lead to full scale war
Following renewed military confrontation between Iran and the United States on Monday, there are now questions whether the clashes will escalate into full scale conflict or will remain limited in scope.
Some analysts are expecting a large-scale conflict to erupt, pointing to continued deadlock in negotiations and competing narratives over the Strait of Hormuz. Others believe that the upcoming US midterm elections and Iran’s economic crisis will limit the confrontation.
Iranian expert Mostafa Najafi told The New Arab that the US strikes on the island of Larak and the Iranian retaliatory attacks on US bases in the region were unlikely to be the end of the renewed military conflict.
He pointed to the failure of recent mediation efforts, the tightening of the US economic blockade, and Washington’s renewed use of military force.
Najafi said that there is a possibility of continued escalation and intensifying clashes in the coming days, particularly as two completely contradictory narratives have emerged in recent days regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States is promoting a narrative of the “opening” of the strait, while Iran insists that it is still “closed.”
Najafi added that both sides will seek to reinforce their respective narratives about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
This, in itself, could lead to heightened tensions and further clashes. Najafi added that this issue is of paramount importance to Iran given the current situation in the strait and the economic war being waged by the United States.
Renewed war unlikely
However, another Iranian expert, Meysam Taghavi-Nia told The New Arab that he does not expect the new escalation to lead to a large-scale war like the one the US and Israel launched last February.
He said that even if the clashes continue, they are likely to remain limited in scope and will not develop into a full-scale war.
Taghavi-Nia said that upcoming Congressional midterm elections in the US meant that Washington would be unlikely to want to escalate tensions, particularly because US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are not doing well in opinion polls.
Taghavi-Nia said the latest escalation stems from Iran’s efforts to impose its own arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States claims it has the ability to ensure the safe passage of ships.
Intermittent skirmishes
Iranian international-relations expert Mohammad Amin Hazrati told The New Arab that the next phase of the conflict between Iran and the United States is likely consist of intermittent skirmishes, at least until the US midterm elections in November.
Hazrati noted that Iran is seeking to restore its deterrence capabilities, which have been weakened in the region since the beginning of the Gaza War in October 2023 and its spillover into the rest of the Middle East.
However, he said that this would not lead to a full-scale war, pointing to several factors that could prevent one from breaking out.
The US administration is concerned about the impact of rising oil prices on the upcoming November elections, while reports indicate that its military stockpiles needed for prolonged wars are limited.
Iran, meanwhile, is being pressured by a severe economic crisis not to enter into a broad conflict.
Hazrati therefore expects the pattern of limited and sporadic clashes to continue, as it has in recent months.
He stressed that the ultimate direction of the conflict - whether toward a settlement or a major escalation - will not become clear until after the US elections.
