Namibia’s energy crossroads: Can oil boom power a green future?

As Namibia advances offshore oil development and prepares to launch new petroleum infrastructure at Walvis Bay, President Nandi-Ndaitwah’s commitment to pursuing both hydrocarbons and green hydrogen faces its defining economic test.

Elvis Mboya

Namibia’s energy strategy is entering a critical phase as offshore oil discoveries attract international investment, green hydrogen projects seek commercial financing and government moves to expand petroleum infrastructure.

Today (Wednesday), President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is expected to launch the Dangote Namibia Tank Farm and Regional Pipeline Project at Farm 58, outside Walvis Bay, adding another development to the country’s emerging petroleum economy.

But the wider question facing Namibia is not simply how to develop its oil resources. It is whether petroleum wealth can complement, rather than displace, the green industrialisation ambitions established under the late President Hage Geingob.

President Nandi-Ndaitwah has rejected the idea that the country must choose between the two energy pathways. The challenge now is translating that policy position into investment, industrial capacity, employment and economic returns.

Geingob’s green hydrogen legacy

Geingob’s administration elevated green hydrogen into a national industrialisation priority through Harambee Prosperity Plan II and the Southern Corridor Development Initiative.

The flagship Hyphen project, planned for the Tsau //Khaeb National Park near Lüderitz, represents an estimated US$10 billion investment across its proposed development phases.

At full scale, it targets annual production of two million tonnes of green ammonia. However, the project’s commercialisation has taken longer than initially anticipated.

Hyphen is targeting a final investment decision on its first phase by the end of 2027, with financing, infrastructure and long-term offtake agreements remaining critical.

In September 2026, the African Development Bank selected Hyphen for prospective US$5.93 million development funding to advance the project towards its investment decision. This follows an earlier US$10 million development grant.

The funding is intended to improve project readiness, not finance construction. The distinction highlights the substantial capital still required to move Namibia’s hydrogen ambitions from development into production.

Oil discoveries change the equation

Meanwhile, discoveries in the Orange Basin have brought major international energy companies into Namibia’s offshore petroleum industry.

TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp Energia, QatarEnergy and Rhino Resources are among the companies involved in exploration and appraisal activities alongside state-owned National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR).

A significant development came in September 2026 when TotalEnergies completed its acquisition of a 40% operated interest in Petroleum Exploration Licence 83, containing the Mopane discovery.

The company plans a three-well appraisal campaign and is targeting a potential final investment decision in 2028.

These developments have raised expectations of commercial oil production around 2030. However, discoveries are not equivalent to proven commercial production.

Appraisal results, development costs, infrastructure, regulatory approvals and investment decisions will determine whether the resources can be developed economically.

The petroleum sector could generate export earnings, royalties, taxes and business opportunities. It could also create demand for engineering, logistics, construction and specialised services.

The challenge will be ensuring that the industry develops meaningful local supply chains rather than operating as an offshore enclave with limited domestic economic linkages.

The president’s energy mix policy

Speaking at the Unstoppable Africa 2026 conference in New York, President Nandi-Ndaitwah made her position clear.

“For us, it is not a choice between green hydrogen and oil and gas,” she said.

She argued that Namibia requires energy to support industrialisation, while acknowledging the need to reduce emissions and develop new skills.

Her position reflects the country’s development priorities, particularly its mineral-based economy and the wider energy deficit across Southern Africa.

However, pursuing multiple energy sources will require careful capital allocation. Green hydrogen requires competitive renewable power, export infrastructure and committed buyers.

Offshore petroleum requires substantial exploration, development and production investment. Both sectors will compete for skilled labour, infrastructure, financing and government attention.

Governance and the public interest

The Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Amendment Bill, which passed its second reading in the National Assembly on 20 October, adds another dimension to the debate.

The proposed legislation would transfer significant upstream petroleum regulatory responsibilities to a new unit within the Office of the President. It has attracted scrutiny over institutional independence, accountability and oversight.

The bill must still complete further parliamentary stages before becoming law.

As petroleum investment expands, transparent regulation and predictable rules will be essential to investor confidence and public trust.

Ultimately, Namibia’s energy ambitions must be judged by more than discoveries, investment announcements or production targets.

The real measure will be whether these resources create jobs, develop local skills, support manufacturing, expand exports and improve national prosperity.

The oil boom and green hydrogen vision need not be competing legacies. Their economic value will depend on whether Namibia can manage both as part of a coherent industrialisation strategy.