Drought-hit Kenya should lift ban on GMO maize imports to prioritise its food security

Kenya’s drought has devastated the maize crop. Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that Kenya will not have sufficient maize to meet its annual requirements. The country must now rely on imports to fulfil its needs.

Kenya may need to import about two million tonnes of maize to meet its annual requirement of four million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year.

Ordinarily, this would not be a challenge as the global market is awash with maize. But Kenya and many African countries use white maize for human consumption. And white maize is not widely produced.

The largest producers include Mexico, South Africa and Zambia. Major maize producers such as the US and South American countries generally produce yellow maize, which is used for animal feed and industrial purposes, among other things. White maize production in these countries is typically small. This leaves Kenya with few countries to explore for maize imports, as it faces a shortage.

South Africa is better placed to supply maize to Kenya, with a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tonnes (against its annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes). In fact, South Africa can export more than 3.0 million tonnes of maize in the current marketing year that ends in April 2026.

We already see exports to countries in the Far East and neighbouring countries. For example, between the start of May 2026, the beginning of the current 2026-27 marketing year, and the start of September 2026, South Africa had already exported about 1.1 million tonnes of maize to markets such as South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and southern African countries.

But Kenya, which imports most of its maize, may not be able to receive maize from South Africa. The challenge won’t be South Africa’s refusal to supply maize to Kenya, but Kenya’s policy rigidities.

Put simply, South Africa won’t be able to export maize to Kenya because the country still bans genetically modified maize imports. Given the limited global supply of white maize and South Africa’s status as a major supplier, Kenya may suddenly struggle to secure maize imports, leading to a “self-created” shortage.

This policy rigidity in Kenya’s agricultural sector poses immense food security challenges for Kenyans; these restrictions can block access to affordable maize from South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, the US and others. In times like this, policymakers must prioritise people’s food security needs.

Ideally, Kenya should review its genetically modified maize import restrictions in seasons like this. South Africa, the major maize producer, has roughly 85% of its maize production as genetically modified. The numbers are even higher in other countries such as the US and Brazil, although they also have very limited white maize production and wouldn’t be much help even if maize policy changed overnight.

In such times, I believe the Kenyan authorities should review the country’s ban on genetically modified maize imports. After all, Kenya won’t be an anomaly on this path. Consider Zimbabwe; it doesn’t plant genetically modified maize because it worries that small-scale farmers would struggle to procure seeds annually, among other issues.

But Zimbabwe appreciates that food security is key and has opened its borders to the import of genetically modified maize so that the people of Zimbabwe don’t run into shortages. In fact, Zimbabwe remains one of South Africa’s major buyers of white maize.

Kenya should consider a policy approach like Zimbabwe’s. Ultimately, countries in the region must embrace science so that we don’t run into issues like this one in Kenya.

In the near term, Kenya may receive some supplies from Zambia, since Zambia has a surplus of nearly two million tonnes of non-GMO maize.

But given the likely drought next season, it remains unclear whether Zambia would be open to longer-term exports or would limit exports, as it typically does in dry periods.

South Africa won’t limit maize exports; thus, I believe it would serve Kenya well to consider a special dispensation that permits importing genetically modified maize and opens room for procurement from South Africa. This would help address near-term food security concerns. DM