Ghana’s next investment chapter: Turning recovery into resilience

GHANA has retained its position as Africa’s sixth most attractive investment destination for the third consecutive year, according to Rand Merchant Bank’s (RMB) latest Where to Invest in Africa 2026/27 report. RMB is the corporate and investment banking arm of FirstRand Group, the parent group of First National Bank Ghana.

An unchanged ranking may suggest limited progress. Yet beneath the headline lies a more compelling story of Ghana’s economic recovery strengthening considerably, although the full benefits are yet to be reflected in an assessment designed to capture longer-term fundamentals.

The ranking provides a starting point for understanding that story. Investment opportunities differ across sectors, and an economy’s overall position cannot fully capture the prospects of individual industries or projects.

The more consequential question is whether Ghana can convert its recovery into productive investment, stronger institutions and sustainable economic growth.

Beneath the unchanged ranking lies a more compelling story of economic recovery and improving fundamentals. The question is whether Ghana can sustain these gains and translate them into productive investment, stronger institutions and durable growth.

The ranking provides a starting point. Investment opportunities differ across sectors, and an economy’s overall position cannot fully capture the prospects of individual industries or projects. For investors, the report’s value lies in understanding the underlying strengths, constraints and exposure to shocks.

Recovery strengthens the investment case

RMB’s assessment covers 31 African economies and evaluates 20 indicators across economic performance and potential, market accessibility and innovation, economic stability and investment environment, and social and human development.

Ghana’s investment appeal draws on its established democratic institutions, economic potential, private-sector opportunities and position within the West African region.

The country’s economic performance has improved markedly. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025, with non-oil growth reaching 7.6 per cent in 2025.

Momentum continued into 2026, with growth of 6.4 per cent in the first quarter and 6.0 per cent in the second, bringing first-half growth to 6.2 per cent.

This indicates sustained economic momentum. Its longer-term investment significance will depend on the sectors driving expansion and their capacity to generate employment, exports and durable business cash flows.

Inflation has moderated sharply from crisis-period levels, while fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring have supported efforts to restore confidence. Stronger export earnings have also improved foreign-exchange liquidity and external buffers.

Several indicators in RMB’s assessment incorporate multi-year data, so recent improvements may take time to be reflected fully in Ghana’s score. Sustained stability would strengthen the underlying investment case, although future rankings will also depend on developments elsewhere.

Gold: A source of strength and a concentration risk

RMB describes Ghana’s turnaround as a gold-plated revival, reflecting stronger gold exports, fiscal consolidation, disinflation and improving external balances. According to the report, gold accounted for 62.9 per cent of merchandise export earnings in 2025. Together, gold, cocoa and crude oil generated approximately 80 per cent of those earnings.

Higher gold earnings have strengthened foreign-exchange inflows and supported reserve accumulation. However, this concentration leaves Ghana exposed to commodity-price corrections, particularly if weaker export receipts coincide with higher energy costs or tighter global financing conditions.

The policy objective is to maximise the domestic benefits of mineral wealth while preserving incentives for long-term investment. Predictable taxation and lease arrangements matter because mining projects require capital commitments extending beyond individual commodity cycles.

Equally important is directing commodity gains towards infrastructure, manufacturing, agribusiness, processing and logistics. These investments can broaden the export base, generate employment and reduce dependence on a narrow range of commodities.

The countries that sustain investment competitiveness over time are often those that successfully convert commodity wealth into productive capacity, stronger export diversification and broader macro and microeconomic gains.

In the 2026/27 series, Morocco overtakes South Africa to take fourth position, reflecting sustained industrialisation and export diversification. Côte d’Ivoire advances to seventh, having ranked 16th two years earlier as currency stability, infrastructure development and economic diversification support expansion.

Nigeria climbs seven places to 11th, reflecting the positive impact of what the report characterises as “tough medicine” reforms, including exchange-rate liberalisation, subsidy removal and broader macroeconomic adjustment measures.

Attractiveness and resilience go hand in hand

The report’s Resilience and Vulnerability framework complements its investment assessment by examining exposure to shocks and the capacity to withstand and recover from them.

For Ghana, the findings present a balanced picture. Institutional strengths support its investment appeal, while the legacy of debt and currency pressures reinforces the importance of strengthening macroeconomic buffers.

The findings underline the distinction between recovery and resilience. Restoring stability is an important achievement, but maintaining growth through future shocks requires continued fiscal discipline, policy consistency and institutional effectiveness.

For investors, that distinction is consequential. Attractive opportunities require scrutiny of both their expected returns and the economic conditions needed to sustain them.

Where the investment opportunities lie

Ghana’s improving environment presents three investment channels.

Productive business financing

Relatively limited private-sector credit penetration suggests scope for financial deepening as conditions improve. Opportunities span working capital, trade finance, project finance and supply-chain solutions.

Sustainable expansion will depend on affordable funding, sound underwriting, bankable projects and stronger business cash flows.

Fiscal discipline remains essential. Public investment must be supported by stronger revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management to preserve debt sustainability and financing capacity for businesses.

Industrial development and export diversification

The 24-Hour Economy programme and AgriConnect Compact present opportunities to expand production, value addition and regional trade. Successful implementation could create demand for investment across manufacturing, agribusiness, processing, logistics and associated infrastructure.

Energy-sector reform will be critical to commercial viability. Reliable supply, improved revenue collection and reduced distribution losses can strengthen industrial competitiveness.

Investment decisions should therefore assess implementation capacity, infrastructure availability and access to markets alongside policy ambition.

Capital markets and long-term financing

Ghana’s equity market recorded strong price gains in 2025, with the Composite Index returning approximately 79 per cent in cedi terms. Translating market performance into deeper financing capacity will require sustained issuance, broader participation and greater access to long-term funding for businesses.

Corporate bonds, commercial paper and equity can complement bank lending where funding structures match business cash flows and investor requirements. Strong disclosure, credible governance and predictable issuance will be essential to developing these channels.

Across these opportunities, disciplined capital allocation, liquidity management and foreign-exchange risk mitigation will remain central to sustainable returns.

Ghana’s next investment chapter

For policymakers, the priority is preserving reform credibility and expanding productive capacity. For businesses, it is converting improving conditions into commercially viable investment. For investors, it is assessing expected returns alongside their durability through economic cycles.

At First National Bank Ghana, we believe the next investment chapter will be defined by the country’s ability to translate recovery into resilient businesses, diversified exports and sustainable growth.

Drawing on our local expertise and the broader capabilities of FirstRand Group, we are well positioned to support businesses and investors in financing productive opportunities and navigating this transition.

BY JULIEN K.O. AYIPPEY

The writer is Head, Strategy, Research & Data Analytics, First National Bank Ghana.

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