Turkey’s Growing Military Role Raises Alarm, Prompting Somaliland to Seek Israeli Air Defences

Hargeisa’s Wake-Up Call: Baidoa Fighting Raises Fears That Turkish Military Power Could Become Entangled in Somalia’s Political Conflicts

HARGEISA (WDN) — For Somaliland, the lesson from Baidoa is no longer theoretical.

As Turkish F-16s, drones and other military capabilities have become increasingly visible in Somalia, the violent confrontation surrounding Baidoa has given Hargeisa a powerful reason to reconsider its own air-defence needs and to look toward Israel for protection against a changing regional military balance.

The warning from Hargeisa is becoming increasingly direct. Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign-affairs adviser to Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, told Middle East Eye that Somaliland wants Israeli air-defence systems because of Türkiye’s expanding military presence in Somalia.

“We need air defence systems,” Fadal said, specifically citing Turkish F-16s in Mogadishu and Ankara’s growing drone capabilities. “We want Israel to support us against Turkey.”

The statement does not establish that Israel has agreed to provide such systems. Nor does it demonstrate that Türkiye intends to attack Somaliland. But it reveals a significant change in how Somaliland officials are assessing the regional security environment. And that change has been shaped by what has happened in Baidoa.

Baidoa Changed the Calculation

Türkiye says its military partnership with Somalia is designed to strengthen Somali security institutions and fight terrorism. Ankara has repeatedly denied allegations that its forces are being used to influence Somalia’s internal political struggles. But the political controversy surrounding Türkiye’s military role has intensified as Somalia’s federal crisis has turned violent.

In and around Baidoa, Turkish aircraft and drones have been reported during periods of intense fighting involving federal forces and forces aligned with former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

Laftagareen-aligned authorities have accused Türkiye of conducting F-16 strikes against their forces. Those allegations have not been independently verified, and Turkish authorities have not publicly accepted responsibility for the alleged attacks. Nevertheless, the controversy itself matters.

For observers in Hargeisa, the question is no longer simply how many Turkish weapons or aircraft Somalia possesses. It is how those capabilities might be used if Somalia’s political disputes become military confrontations. That is the wake-up call Somaliland appears to have taken from Baidoa.

From Counterterrorism to Political Risk

Türkiye’s defence relationship with Somalia is substantial. The two countries signed a ten-year defence and economic cooperation framework in 2024 under which Türkiye committed to building, training and equipping the Somali navy.

Türkiye has also maintained a major military training presence in Mogadishu, while its parliamentary authorization for military deployment in Somalia has been extended through July 2028. The deployment has now expanded to include advanced aircraft.

Three Turkish F-16s have been publicly seen operating in Somalia, while Turkish helicopters , drones and other military assets have also been deployed. Reporting has increasingly linked Turkish aircraft to security operations in Somalia, although the circumstances and targets of particular air operations remain disputed.

For Türkiye, these capabilities are part of its defence partnership with Mogadishu. For Somaliland, however, they represent a potential strategic vulnerability.

Critics argue, if Turkish military assets are used or are perceived to be used in Somalia’s internal political conflicts, Hargeisa has reason to ask what safeguards exist to prevent the same capabilities from eventually becoming relevant to a confrontation involving Somaliland.

A Growing Political Backlash

The controversy is also beginning to affect Türkiye’s wider political standing among Somalis. There is no reliable nationwide polling establishing that a majority of Somalis now oppose Türkiye. But criticism of Ankara’s role has become increasingly visible among opposition politicians, former officials and commentators who argue that Türkiye’s close relationship with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud makes it difficult for Ankara to be viewed as a neutral actor in Somalia’s political disputes.

That perception has become particularly important because Türkiye has simultaneously presented itself as a diplomatic partner capable of facilitating dialogue among Somali political actors.

The contradiction is increasingly obvious to Türkiye’s critics: a country perceived by some political actors as closely aligned with the federal government may find it difficult to convince those same actors that it can serve as an impartial mediator.

Türkiye rejects that characterization, saying its military presence is focused on counterterrorism, strengthening Somali institutions and respecting Somalia’s political process. But perceptions can have consequences even when allegations remain unproven.

Could a Future Government Reconsider the Relationship?

The political debate raises another question that is attracting increasing attention in Somalia: what happens to the Turkish partnership if a future federal government takes a different view of Ankara’s role?

Some opposition figures and political commentators have argued that Somalia’s next government could review existing defence and security arrangements with Türkiye if Ankara is perceived to have abandoned neutrality in domestic political disputes. That is a political expectation, not an established government policy.

The current defence framework remains in force, and Somalia continues to describe Türkiye as an important strategic security partner. But the Baidoa crisis has introduced a new variable.

Military cooperation that is broadly welcomed when directed against Al-Shabaab can become politically contentious if the same military capabilities are perceived as being deployed during disputes between Somali political factions.

That distinction could become increasingly important as Somalia approaches another political transition.

Why Somaliland Is Looking to Israel

This is the strategic calculation behind Hargeisa’s request. Somaliland has watched Türkiye build a sophisticated military relationship with Mogadishu while its own relationship with Israel has developed rapidly following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025.

Israel has already begun security cooperation with Somaliland. Somaliland Defence Minister Mohamed Yusuf Ali previously confirmed that Israel was providing training to Somaliland police and military personnel, while saying there were no discussions or plans for an Israeli military base.

The request for air-defence systems would take that relationship into a considerably more sensitive area. For Somaliland, Israeli technology could provide a potential defensive counterweight to the growing military capabilities associated with Mogadishu.

For Israel, however, supplying advanced air-defence systems would be a major strategic decision with implications for its relationship with Türkiye, Somalia and other regional actors.

A New Security Equation in the Horn

The emerging regional picture is striking. Türkiye has established a deep military relationship with Mogadishu. Israel has established diplomatic relations with Hargeisa and begun security cooperation.

Somaliland is now publicly asking Israel for air-defence capabilities. Meanwhile, Somalia’s unresolved political divisions have demonstrated in Baidoa how quickly political disputes can become armed confrontations.

The danger is not that a Turkish-Somaliland military confrontation is inevitable. There is no established evidence that Türkiye is preparing to attack Somaliland. The danger is that the expansion of foreign military capabilities could become entangled with Somalia’s unresolved political disputes, creating perceptions of threat even where governments insist that their objectives are defensive or counterterrorism-related.

For Somaliland, Baidoa appears to have provided the clearest warning yet. Hargeisa is looking at what happened when advanced military capabilities entered a deeply divided Somali political environment—and it does not want to wait until a crisis reaches its own doorstep before developing an air-defence strategy.

That is why the Israeli request matters. It is not simply about buying weapons. It is about Somaliland’s attempt to ensure that the rapidly changing military balance around Somalia does not leave it without options.

And it raises a much larger question for Somalia’s next political chapter: can foreign military partnerships remain credible as neutral security arrangements when Somalia’s political actors increasingly disagree over who controls the state, its forces and its territory?

For Türkiye, the answer will depend not only on what Ankara says about neutrality, but on how its military partnership is perceived by the Somali political actors who may govern the country in the future. For Somaliland, the lesson from Baidoa is already clear: air power changes political calculations—and Hargeisa does not intend to ignore the warning.

WardheerNews

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