The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for anticipated El Niño conditions to an unprecedented 100 percent, up from 80 percent, following updated global weather models. In a statement shared on Thursday, September 3, 2026, the UN weather agency confirmed an almost certain likelihood that the climate pattern will persist through February 2027, […] The post WMO Raises El Niño Probability To 100 Percent, Warning Of Disruption Through Early 2027 appeared first on Ghafla!
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for anticipated El Niño conditions to an unprecedented 100 percent, up from 80 percent, following updated global weather models.
In a statement shared on Thursday, September 3, 2026, the UN weather agency confirmed an almost certain likelihood that the climate pattern will persist through February 2027, driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures spreading across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an ‘exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%’ that El Niño will persist through to February 2027… El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters.” — UN Secretary-General António Guterres
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the phenomenon is expected to reach peak intensity toward the end of the year, posing significant risks to vulnerable communities and local economies across the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique, and Eritrea.
In Kenya, officials and humanitarian organizations are bracing for severe weather disruptions, heavy rainfall, and potential flooding. A recent report by the Danish Refugee Council estimates that up to 1.03 million people across the region could face displacement, prompting calls for urgent climate action and disaster preparedness.
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