2027: Is Governor Uba Sani coasting to victory?

*As campaigns for the 2027 governorship election are set to begin, one of the states where fierce contest is expected is Kaduna State and the battle for the exalted seat is already generating heat. Northern Bureau Chief, MUHAMMAD SABIU, examines the chances of the two major contenders for the Kaduna Government House, Governor ***Uba Sani **of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Hon Isa Ashiru Kudan of the African Democratic Congress (ADC)

THE incumbent, Senator Uba Sani is seeking a second term on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Just as in 2023, he is expected to face his arch-rival, Hon. Isa Ashiru Kudan of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The big question is: Is the governor coasting to victory?

With less than a month to the official commencement of campaigns across the 36 states, tension is gradually building in Kaduna. Findings indicate that while other parties such as the PDP, PRP, SDP, and NDC have fielded candidates, the main contest will likely be between the APC and the ADC.

The strength of APC, ADC

The APC has been in control of Kaduna since 2015, when Mallam Nasir El-Rufai first won the governorship. He secured re-election in 2019. In 2023, Senator Uba Sani, also of the APC, won the election by defeating Isa Ashiru Kudan with a margin of about 10,000 votes in a keenly contested poll. So the APC still remain powerful and the party to beat by the opposition parties. It is currently the ruling party and has structure from the local government to state levels and by extension the federal level. The party is in vintage position to repeat its feat.

While the ADC, is positioning itself as the main opposition, and cannot be written off. The party is believed to be under the influence of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, who is currently in custody. Its candidate, Isa Ashiru Kudan, is also a familiar face in Kaduna politics, having contested the governorship at least five times since leaving the National Assembly in 2007, according to records obtained by the Nigerian Tribune.

A critical factor for the APC will be the power of incumbency. The party is also conscious that issues such as fuel subsidy removal will dominate voter conversations. With access to state resources and structures, the governor’s camp is expected to leverage its financial muscle to influence voter sentiment.

For the ADC, the strategy appears to be riding on public frustration over the current economic hardship. Speaking to the Nigerian Tribune ADC chieftain Adams Tanko and House of Representative candidate for Jema’a/ Sanga Federal Constituency said:

“2027 will witness another tsutsami, as Nigerians are tired of the present government.”

APC’s burden and ADC’s fractures

Despite its grip on power, the ruling APC in Kaduna is not without challenges heading into 2027.

The biggest burden is the economy. The fallout from fuel subsidy removal, rising cost of living, and insecurity in parts of the state have created voter fatigue. Many residents who supported the party in 2015 and 2019 are now asking what has changed in their daily lives. For an incumbent, that sentiment is dangerous.

There’s also the challenge of managing expectations.

With 12 years in the saddle since 2015, the APC will have to defend not just Governor Uba Sani’s record. Any failure will be blamed on the party, not just the individual.

For the ADC, the problem is different: factions. Investigation revealed that the party currently has at least three visible power blocs.

Number one is the El-Rufai bloc: The former governor, though reportedly in custody, is still seen as the party’s biggest financier and strategist in the state. His influence gives the ADC national visibility, but also makes it vulnerable to accusations of being a “one-man party.”

Number two is the Ashiru bloc: Hon. Isa Ashiru Kudan remains the face of the party’s governorship ambition. He has the name recognition and the structure from 2023, but critics say he has not been able to fully unify the party behind him.

Number three is, the Shuaibu Mikati bloc: This group draws strength from the zone’s frustration over years of banditry and neglect. It argues that both APC and ADC have taken the area for granted and are pushing for more recognition and ticket considerations within the ADC.

If these factions fail to close ranks before campaigns begin, the ADC risks going into 2027 divided – and that could hand the APC an easy win.

A party chiettain who asked not to be named told the Nigerian Tribune: “ADC has the anger of the people on its side. APC has the structure. The question is which one will matter more in 2027”

Factors working in APC’s favour

Despite the headwinds, several factors could give the ruling APC an advantage in 2027. One of the most significant is the governor’s deliberate effort to promote unity, particularly in Southern Kaduna. By choosing a Christian running mate (Jerry Adams) for his 2027 ticket and retaining that model, Senator Uba Sani broke with the Muslim-Muslim formula that had generated tension in previous elections.

The move was widely seen as an attempt to heal old wounds and build trust across the state’s religious and ethnic divides. That political gesture has been reinforced by what government officials call the “Kaduna State Peace Model.” The model, which combines dialogue, community engagement, and security collaboration, is credited with reducing violence in hitherto volatile areas.

In Southern Kaduna, communal clashes that once dominated headlines have dropped significantly. Also in Birnin Gwari and Giwa local peace committees and amnesty initiatives have led to a relative calm compared to previous years. While security challenges persist, but in a minimal state, the government points to these areas as proof that its approach is working.

For many voters, peace and stability remain top priorities. If the APC can campaign on a record of restored calm in Southern Kaduna, Birnin Gwari, and Giwa, it gives the governor a tangible achievement to take to the polls.

Infrastructure drive is another factor that could work for the governor. For instance, the Sani administration has prioritized road construction and rehabilitation, with a clear focus on connecting underserved areas. Several road projects in Southern Kaduna that were stalled for years have been revived, and new ones initiated. For communities that have long complained of neglect, these projects are visible proof of government presence.

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Beyond roads, there have been investments in schools, primary healthcare centers, and rural electrification – all aimed at showing that governance is reaching beyond the urban centers of Kaduna and Zaria.

The government focus on agriculture is a plus to him.

Aware that Kaduna has huge agricultural potential, the government has made attempts to revive the sector. Initiatives around input support, mechanization, and linkage to markets are being pushed, particularly for small holder farmers. With food inflation biting hard nationwide, any improvement in farm yields and rural income will be a campaign asset for the APC.

The improvement on Labour and government Relations is a plus to his government. Unlike some states where government-labour relations have broken down, Kaduna under Sani has maintained a relatively cordial relationship with labour unions. The administration’s willingness to engage the NLC and other unions on wages and welfare has helped avoid major strikes. In an election year, a peaceful labour front is an advantage for any incumbent A political analyst in Kaduna summarised it this way:

“APC has problems, yes. But if they can sell peace, roads, and a stable wage bill, they have something concrete to campaign on. That’s more than slogans.”

The hurdles before ADC

The Internal factions within it’s ranks is a major minus to the party’s attempt to clinch the governorship ticket.

The ADC in Kaduna is split into at least 3 blocs — El-Rufai’s, Ashiru’s, and the Mikati group. For instance the Mikati bloc feels neglected and is demanding more inclusion and possibly a shot at the ticket or deputy slot. This position was later escalated by a chieftain of the party, Salisu Lukman who accused the party of selection justice forcing him to leave the party in Kaduna.

The issue of a “Recycled candidate” narrative is being used against the candidate of Ashiru. APC will argue that after five attempts, it’s time for “new blood.” ADC will have to sell Ashiru as “experience” not “desperation.”

Thus findings gathered that If the factions don’t close ranks before elections in 2027, they could see the party losing at the polls.

That’s what killed many opposition parties in 2023.

Thus, the bottom line is that the ADC has 2 clear advantages going into 2027: public anger at the economy and a candidate who nearly won last time

All said and done, 2027 in Kaduna will not be a walkover.

The economy, insecurity, and voter fatigue are real issues that the ADC, led by Isa Ashiru, will exploit. The ADC also has the benefit of a familiar candidate who came within 10,000 votes in 2023 and the political weight of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai behind it.