Zambia’s inflation narrowly up to 6.3% in October

**LUSAKA-(MaraviPost)-**Zambia’s annual inflation rate rose for the second straight month in October, while the country’s trade balance swung sharply into deficit in September, the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) has reported.

According to the Agency’s latest monthly bulletin released on Thursday, during a press conference, annual inflation for October 2026 was recorded at 6.3 percent, up from 6.1 percent in September.

The increase of 20 basis points means that on average, the prices of goods and services were 6.3 percent higher than they were in October 2025.

ZamStats attributed the uptick mainly to price movements in non-food items, signaling renewed cost pressure outside the food basket which has been relatively stable in recent months.

A breakdown of the inflation basket shows a diverging trend between food and non-food categories.

Food inflation slowed marginally to 5.7 percent in October from 5.8 percent in September, offering slight relief to households where food accounts for a significant share of expenditure.

The easing reflects relatively stable prices for staple foods including maize meal, vegetables and dried fish in some regions, though ZamStats noted localized pressures remain.

Non-food inflation, however, accelerated significantly to 7.4 percent from 6.6 percent in the previous month – a jump of 80 basis points.

The Agency linked the rise to increases in the cost of housing, utilities, transport, household furnishings and personal care services. Analysts say the non-food spike may be driven by exchange rate pass-through effects, higher fuel costs, and rising rental and construction material prices.

Despite the October increase, Zambia’s inflation remains well within the Bank of Zambia’s medium-term target range of 6 to 8 percent, and far below the double-digit levels seen in 2021-2023 when the economy was battling debt distress and currency volatility.

The central bank has held its benchmark interest rate steady in recent meetings, balancing the need to support growth with keeping inflation expectations anchored.

In a separate highlight, ZamStats reported a deterioration in external trade.

Total trade in September 2026 decreased by 1.4 percent to $3.40 billion from $3.45 billion recorded in August 2026.

More significantly, Zambia posted a trade deficit of $0.19 billion – or $190 million – in September, compared to a surplus of $0.05 billion – $50 million – in August.

The swing from surplus to deficit – a negative shift of $240 million in one month – marks the largest monthly reversal this year.

ZamStats did not immediately provide a detailed commodity breakdown, but Zambia’s trade balance is heavily influenced by copper exports, which account for over 70 percent of export earnings, and imports of petroleum products, machinery and fertilizer.

The September deficit comes at a time when global copper prices have been volatile, and Zambia is ramping up imports of capital goods and energy equipment to support increased mining production and the ongoing 2026/2027 farming season.

Economists in Lusaka said the deficit is not yet alarming but warrants monitoring. “A single month does not make a trend, but the combination of rising non-food inflation and a trade deficit suggests demand-side pressures are building as the economy recovers,” one Lusaka-based economist told journalists on the sidelines of the press conference.

ZamStats is expected to release detailed trade volumes by product category and trading partner next week, which will clarify whether the deficit was driven by a fall in export volumes or a surge in imports.

For now, the Agency said its composite Consumer Price Index and trade data continue to show a recovering but still vulnerable economy, with inflation broadly under control but exposed to non-food shocks.

The government, which is implementing reforms under its Extended Credit Facility programme with the International Monetary Fund following a successful debt restructuring in 2024, has projected average annual inflation of around 6.5 percent for 2026.

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