Mideast oil exports top prewar level even as attacks surge in Hormuz

Despite continuing diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran, and amid ongoing attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil shipments from the Middle East now exceed levels recorded before the war.

By World Israel News Staff

Middle Eastern crude exports have surged back above levels seen before the war with Iran on several recent days, an unexpectedly strong recovery in energy traffic through the region even as tankers face a mounting series of projectile attacks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude shipments reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and again from September 27 through September 29, according to provisional vessel-tracking data cited by Reuters.

By October 1, the seven-day average had climbed to 18.5 million barrels per day, slightly above the roughly 18 million-barrel daily average recorded between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.

The figures include oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz as well as exports through the Red Sea, terminals elsewhere in the region and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

When refined products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids are included, Middle Eastern exports averaged approximately 22.4 million barrels per day during the seven days ending September 30.

The rebound marks a dramatic turnaround from the disruption that followed the outbreak of war, when Iran’s efforts to restrict traffic through Hormuz forced Gulf producers and their customers to radically reorganize energy shipments.

Saudi Arabia initially shifted large quantities of crude westward through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

But attacks on that route subsequently pushed Riyadh to send greater volumes back through the Persian Gulf, demonstrating that far more oil could still be moved through Hormuz than had appeared possible earlier in the conflict.

Saudi crude exports through Hormuz averaged roughly 3 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the war began.

Liquefied natural gas traffic has also recovered. The number of LNG cargoes leaving through Hormuz rose in September to its highest monthly level since February.

The recovery is particularly significant because of the Strait of Hormuz’s outsized importance to the world economy. Before the war, roughly 125 large commercial vessels crossed the waterway each day, carrying around one-fifth of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.

But the increase in traffic has been accompanied by a sharp deterioration in security.

At least seven maritime incidents have been reported in and around Hormuz in recent days, with tankers repeatedly struck by unidentified projectiles.

On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was hit while operating in the strait, sparking a fire aboard the vessel.

“All crew members were reported safe and were subsequently evacuated from the vessel,” maritime intelligence firm Marisks said.

The tanker had previously discharged approximately 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz terminal.

On October 2, a tanker leaving Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile, causing what maritime authorities described as “a small fire and blackout onboard.”

Another crude tanker was struck four nautical miles east of Oman the same day. Its crew was reported safe and no environmental damage was initially detected.

On October 4, another tanker was hit inside the Strait of Hormuz, with the projectile damaging its engine room. No crew injuries or environmental damage were reported.

Maritime authorities have advised commercial vessels to exercise heightened caution as the frequency of attacks increases.

Marisks warned that merchant shipping now faces a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.”

The company said the emerging pattern may indicate that some vessels are not being individually selected for attack. Instead, Iranian forces may be firing weapons into predetermined engagement areas in which missiles can acquire radar signatures from ships passing through them.

That would effectively turn portions of the waterway into a maritime “kill box,” placing ships at risk simply by entering the area at the wrong moment.

Despite those dangers, oil continues to move in volumes that would have appeared unlikely only months ago.

Crude flows specifically through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of approximately 14.2 million barrels per day on September 26 — nearly 80% of the prewar level. Actual volumes could be higher because some vessels disable their Automatic Identification System transponders while crossing the strait and remain electronically dark for days afterward.

The restoration of supply has begun to exert some downward pressure on oil markets.

Brent crude fell to around $101.60 a barrel in Asian trading Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped to roughly $90.10.

The decline also followed an agreement by Group of Seven countries to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel from emergency reserves in an effort to ease pressure on global energy markets.

Nevertheless, oil remains dramatically more expensive than before the war.

The explanation increasingly lies not simply in how much crude is available, but in the extraordinary cost of getting it to buyers.

Tanker operators face soaring insurance premiums, longer voyages and a complicated system in which ships shuttle crude through dangerous waters before transferring cargoes outside the Persian Gulf.

Rates for some very large crude carriers traveling from the Middle East to Asia have recently exceeded $1.2 million per day, compared with roughly $30,000 per day at the beginning of the year.

Freight that once accounted for approximately 3% of the delivered price of a barrel of oil can now represent roughly 27%.

Global refining capacity has also been damaged by the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, contributing to particularly severe shortages of diesel.

Those logistical constraints mean the recovery in Middle Eastern exports has not translated into a return to prewar energy prices.

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