Jewish precincts in Michigan shifted heavily away from Democratic party, survey finds

*In Dearborn, which has a substantial Muslim population, El-Sayed received 82.5 percent of the vote, outperforming Benson’s 78.7 percent. *

By Corey Walker, The Algemeiner

Voters in some of Michigan’s most heavily Jewish communities showed heavy migration away from the Democratic Party in the 2026 midterm elections amid controversies surrounding antisemitism and the anti-Israel position of party nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

An analysis of precinct-level election results published Wednesday found that El-Sayed significantly underperformed Democratic Gov.-elect Jocelyn Benson in heavily Jewish communities, underscoring the electoral consequences of his sharply critical positions on Israel.

The contrast was particularly striking in Huntington Woods, a Detroit suburb where approximately two-thirds of residents are Jewish.

El-Sayed received 65.3 percent of the vote there, compared with 80% for Benson, representing a nearly 15-percentage-point gap.

In West Bloomfield, another heavily Jewish Detroit suburb, El-Sayed trailed Benson by 8.8 percentage points.

In Oak Park, El-Sayed narrowly beat his Republican opponent Mike Rogers by a margin of 49.9 percent to 47.5 percentage points.

The numbers offer a revealing snapshot of the tensions surrounding El-Sayed’s candidacy, which became a flashpoint in Michigan’s Jewish community over his calls to terminate American military assistance to Israel, his mischaracterization of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a so-called “genocide,” and his handling of a deadly attack on a West Bloomfield synagogue in March, in which he minimized the attempted massacre by expressing sympathy with the terrorist.

While El-Sayed ultimately prevailed statewide amid a massive national blue wave in favor of the Democratic Party, his performance in these communities suggests that his positions on Israel came at a political cost among voters who have traditionally been a reliable component of the Democratic coalition.

Analysts suggest the divide highlights the extent to which Israel policy has become an independent electoral consideration for Jewish Democrats, some of whom were willing to break with their party or withhold support from its nominee over concerns about El-Sayed.

A pre-election survey of 482 Jewish early voters found that a majority still supported El-Sayed. Nevertheless, the survey also found that nearly one in four Jewish voters who had supported Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 switched to Rogers in the Senate contest.

The Mercury Public Affairs survey indicated that El-Sayed won 60 percent of the early Jewish vote, compared to Benson’s 79 percent, a mere 1.3 percent lower than Slotkin’s 2024 share.

However, this analysis was criticized by pundits for a lack of precision, noting that many of the precincts surveyed carried few Jewish residents and were therefore not representative of the community.

Among Jewish voters who rejected El-Sayed, concerns about Israel and antisemitism were particularly influential. A Forward analysis of the survey found that 92 percent cited those issues as a major reason for their decision.

The campaign also produced an extraordinary rupture among Democratic politicians.

Rep. Haley Stevens, who had previously competed against El-Sayed in the Democratic primary, withdrew her endorsement and backed Rogers shortly before Election Day, citing concerns about antisemitism and the rhetoric surrounding Israel.

Stevens also criticized an advertisement from a prominent El-Sayed supporter that linked high grocery prices to American financial assistance to Israel.

El-Sayed and his campaign distanced themselves from the advertisement.

The data also contrasts with an analysis presented in the immediate aftermath of the elections, which showed that El-Sayed successfully maintained the coalition of Jewish voters in the Wolverine State despite his anti-Israel rhetoric and downplaying of a synagogue terrorist attack.

El-Sayed’s initial response to the March attack on Temple Israel, in which he remarked that “hurt people hurt people,” generated considerable anger among community members who viewed the comments as insufficiently sensitive to the trauma of Jewish victims.

He subsequently apologized to the Jewish community months later, following his primary victor.

The controversy was particularly consequential given Michigan’s substantial Jewish population, estimated at approximately 130,000 people, and the community’s historically strong Democratic affiliations.

In his post-election interview with Politico, El-Sayed acknowledged that Israel had been a major source of disagreement with Jewish voters but insisted he would not change his views.

“I’m not going to change my position,” he said, arguing that he intended to build relationships with Jewish constituents around shared domestic priorities, including healthcare, labor rights, environmental protection, and religious pluralism.

He also suggested that his statewide victory demonstrated that Michigan voters supported his approach to Israel, including his opposition to American military assistance to the Jewish state.

That interpretation, however, overlooks the considerable divergence between his performance and Benson’s in Jewish communities.

El-Sayed’s campaign has pointed to an outside analysis suggesting that he performed only slightly worse than Slotkin in predominantly Jewish precincts in 2024.

His supporters also argue that he faced an expensive opposition campaign backed by wealthy donors and pro-Israel organizations.

But the broader election results suggest that his coalition developed along different lines from that of other Democrats.

In Dearborn, which has a substantial Muslim population, El-Sayed received 82.5 percent of the vote, outperforming Benson’s 78.7 percent.

The contrast with his weaker performance in heavily Jewish communities illustrates how the Israel debate helped shape competing constituencies within the Democratic electorate.

For pro-Israel Democrats, the results offer evidence that opposition to El-Sayed’s approach was not confined to Republican voters or conservative Jewish organizations.

Even in communities that overwhelmingly supported the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, a substantial number of voters appeared unwilling to extend the same support to a Senate candidate who refused to explicitly recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.

The election does not establish that Michigan’s Jewish electorate has abandoned the Democratic Party.

Indeed, polling indicates that most Jewish early voters still supported El-Sayed.

But the substantial gap between his performance and Benson’s suggests that his positions imposed a meaningful electoral liability.

As Democrats begin looking toward the 2028 presidential cycle, the Michigan results could become an important case study in the party’s increasingly contentious debate over Israel.

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